Orban's Rating Plummets Amid Scandal Over Disclosure of Secrets

Victor Orban's party's chances in the upcoming elections on April 12 have sharply declined amid a scandal related to the regular "reports" of Hungarian leaders to the Kremlin. Leading the election campaign, Peter Madjar is urging voters to put an end to Orban's 16-year rule, which has led to economic stagnation, and to give the opposition a mandate to dismantle the prime minister's system of "illiberal democracy."

According to a recent poll by 21 Kutatokozpont, Madjar's party "Tisa" is supported by 56% of decided voters, while Orban's party "Fidesz" has 37%, Bloomberg reports. Three weeks ago, the ratio was 53% to 39%. These figures are similar to the results published last week by the reputable sociological service Median, which recorded a 23 percentage point lead for "Tisa." The aggregate poll results as of March 28, published by Politico, show 50% against 39%: although "Tisa" has been leading for over a year, its support began to grow at the end of March and reached the 50% mark.

Madjar is urging voters to ensure his party a supermajority in parliament, not only to remove Orban but also to dismantle the system in which he has largely brought the courts, media, and many state institutions under control. The Median poll shows that "Tisa" could secure two-thirds of the seats in parliament, while the Kutatokozpont poll gives it slightly fewer seats.

With a supermajority in parliament, "Tisa" would not need to seek support from other deputies to, as Madjar promised, remove Orban's appointees – the top judges and the attorney general, as well as possibly the president.

Orban has built his campaign on accusations against Ukraine and the European Union, which he claims are depriving Hungary of money and security. At the same time, he consistently blocks EU initiatives to support Ukraine and impose sanctions against Russia. In recent weeks, it has emerged that Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto regularly communicated with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and informed him about discussions at EU ministerial meetings. Sometimes he did this directly during breaks in such meetings.

Szijjarto also asked the Russians to prepare information for him that he could use to block anti-Russian sanctions. In Moscow, in turn, they asked him to lobby for the lifting of sanctions – in particular, against the Putin-affiliated billionaire Alisher Usmanov and his relatives. During the war in Ukraine, Szijjarto met with Russian leaders 22 times, and Orban himself made several trips to Moscow. According to leaked phone call records, the Hungarian minister also discussed with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin the blocking of EU sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet.