"Russia remains a dangerous country despite its incompetence," said the head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has published its annual report, which concludes that Russia does not intend to launch a military strike against Estonia or any other NATO member state in the near future.
The agency also emphasizes that Russia is increasing the number of personnel in its armed forces and is replenishing its strategic stockpiles of artillery ammunition. Additionally, units of unmanned aerial vehicles are being formed based on the principle of a mass army.
The report also states that control over Ukraine is an obsession for Russian President Vladimir Putin, as he believes it would restore Russia's position as a great power entitled to make decisions in the field of European security, and that peace negotiations are merely one of the measures to achieve victory in the war.
"Russia remains a dangerous country despite its incompetence, and vigilance is necessary to prevent the expansion of the 'Russian world,'" said Kaupo Rosin, the director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, in the preface to the report. According to him, there is no reason to panic.
The published report notes that since 2021, Russia's defense industry has increased the production of artillery ammunition by more than 17 times. Given the rise in production and significant imports, Russia is likely to be able to replenish some of its strategic stockpiles of artillery ammunition, even despite the ongoing war with Ukraine. For the Kremlin, maintaining such stockpiles is almost certainly an important element in planning for potential future conflicts. According to Estonian estimates, Russia's defense industry is expanding at the expense of traditional sectors of the economy.
"Although sanctions clearly affect the Russian economy, there remain loopholes that need to be closed through targeted measures and cooperation among Western countries," noted the head of the department in the preface.
At the presentation of the report, Kaupo Rosin stated that the Russian economy has become very vulnerable to each subsequent package of sanctions. "Certain cracks are beginning to appear, and all of this is developing along a very favorable trajectory for us. My message is that now is actually the right time to press even harder on the pedal," said the director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
According to him, Russia has tried to create an image that it can continue to fight for a long time and that nothing affects it, but the situation in the country is poor.
The report also discusses the repression against dissenters in Russia. According to Estonian intelligence estimates, in 2026, Russia is likely to introduce even stricter measures to restrict access to independent information in online media.
