Even after the war ends, millions of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe for a long time. This is stated in a report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
The organization modeled three scenarios until the end of 2029: continuation of the war, a "fragile peace with concessions," and Ukraine's victory.
According to the "fragile peace" scenario, hostilities cease, but the Russian Federation retains control over the occupied territories, and temporary protection for Ukrainians in the EU ends in March 2027. Even in this case, according to UNHCR estimates, about 2.9 million Ukrainians will remain in Europe — this is 56% of the current refugees.
In the case of continued war, 99% of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe.
Even in the scenario of Ukraine's victory, UN calculations suggest that about 1.67 million people will remain abroad — roughly a third of the current number.
The largest number of Ukrainians is expected to remain in Germany — about 789,000 people. In Poland — more than 530,000.
The UN also acknowledges that a significant portion of Ukrainians has already deeply integrated into European life: children attend local schools, families work, and many do not see conditions for a quick return.
At the same time, nearly 60% of employed Ukrainians in Europe work below their qualifications, and their incomes are on average about 40% lower than those of the local population.
UNHCR separately warns the EU that a sudden cessation of temporary protection in 2027 could cause chaos, overload asylum systems, and provoke secondary migration within Europe.
In this regard, the organization recommends that EU countries prepare long-term mechanisms for legalizing the stay of Ukrainians, including simplified residence permits and new forms of protection.
