An additional factor will be the weak dynamics of oil prices, which reduce export currency inflows.
The Russian national currency may weaken to a range of 90–95 rubles per dollar in 2026. This scenario is considered by surveyed experts, noting that the end of the ruble's strengthening period will be associated with a gradual easing of monetary policy and a recovery in imports.
According to the chief economist of "BCS Global Markets" Ilya Fedorov, the baseline forecast for 2026 suggests an average annual exchange rate of about 88.8 rubles per dollar. At the same time, if low oil prices persist and the cut-off price under the budget rule is potentially revised, the ruble could weaken to 92–94 rubles. In a more favorable scenario, the expert allows for an increase in export prices, some reduction in import costs while maintaining restrictions on its volumes, as well as a partial recovery of capital movement.
Pavel Paevsky, head of the credit analysis and macroeconomics department at "RSHB Asset Management," believes that in the first months of 2026, the ruble will continue to receive support from high interest rates, which maintain the attractiveness of investments in ruble assets. He also cites the sales of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule, as well as the cooling of the economy, which restrains imports and reduces demand for currency, as additional factors.
At the same time, senior analyst at "First Asset Management" Natalia Vashchalyuk points to the negative impact of sanctions, which have led to an expansion of discounts on Russian oil, as well as a general decline in global oil prices. According to her, this could reduce the foreign currency earnings of exporters and the volumes sold in the market. The situation is further complicated by the cessation in January of currency sales by the Bank of Russia to mirror the use of the National Wealth Fund's resources to finance the budget deficit for 2024. All these factors, according to the expert, create pressure on the ruble, although in the baseline scenario, their impact may be partially offset by other macroeconomic conditions.
Natalia Pyryeva, head of the analytical department at "Tsifra Broker," also expects a moderate weakening of the ruble in 2026. In her opinion, the easing of the Bank of Russia's policy will play a key role, reducing the attractiveness of ruble assets, activating consumer demand, and leading to a recovery in imports. An additional factor will be the weak dynamics of oil prices, which reduce export currency inflows, as well as a decrease in the supply of currency in the market due to the absence of mandatory foreign currency sales requirements and a reduction in net sales by the state. In these conditions, she estimates that the exchange rate may shift to a range of 90–100 rubles per dollar.
A number of experts hold more stringent forecasts. Investment strategist at "VTB My Investments" Stanislav Kleshchev expects that by the end of 2026, the dollar exchange rate will approach 99.8 rubles, while the director of the portfolio investments department at "VIM Investments" Sergey Dyudin allows for a weakening of the ruble to around 99.9 rubles per dollar.
Analyst at "Finam" Alexander Potavin emphasizes that the geopolitical factor retains significant uncertainty. According to him, the market does not currently price in a quick lifting of key sanctions, but if sustainable agreements are reached, this factor could significantly affect the ruble's dynamics. In a negative scenario, the expert also allows for the dollar exchange rate to rise to around 100 rubles by the end of 2026.
