The Earth's Population Will Decrease by 2064: Why Scientists Believe So 0 16

Humanity has become accustomed to assessing its future using complex formulas, sociological surveys, and economic graphs. However, a new and completely unexpected perspective on demographics has been proposed by physicists.

Scientist Alessio Zaccone, along with colleagues from Queen Mary University of London (UK), developed a mathematical equation capable of describing the growth of the Earth's population over the past 12,000 years.

The research was published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. Previously, scientists had predicted when the Earth's population would stop growing.

Physicists on Demography

Initially, the authors created their nonlinear model for an entirely different context. The physicists used these formulas in the study of disordered materials to describe the chaotic motion of atoms in glasses and amorphous solids. It has now become clear that the same laws govern the development of human society, and under the worst ecological scenario, they promise sudden desolation for the Earth.

The new mathematical system is radically different from classical demographic models, which stubbornly consider population growth as an invariably stable or predictable process. Zaccone's physical equation—Trachenko can naturally switch between different historical regimes using just one variable parameter. The model perfectly recreated periods when, during the Neolithic era, the planet's population grew extremely slowly, and it flawlessly replicated the phase of rapid explosion in the industrial age of the 19th century. Moreover, the formula easily explained the current slowdown in birth rates, which began worldwide around 1970.

Cancellation of the Apocalypse

At the same time, the physicists were able to verify and refute one of the most grim and well-known predictions of the past century. In 1960, scientist Heinz von Foerster, along with his colleagues, mathematically calculated a trajectory according to which, by 2026, the Earth's population was supposed to spiral into a frightening infinity, provoking an inevitable collapse due to overpopulation.

Humanity successfully avoided this apocalyptic scenario, as the global birth rate declined just in time. The new equation confirms that under current trends, a catastrophic explosion is no longer a threat, as the governing parameter of the system is in a stable mode. The researchers decided to model how humanity would behave in the event of a global ecological collapse, destructive pandemics, or acute shortages of basic resources.

Gloomy Scenario

The most provocative part of the scientific work describes a hypothetical scenario of events in the case of a sharp decline in living standards. If a climate crisis occurs on the planet and the Earth's ecological carrying capacity suddenly shrinks to two billion people, the physical model predicts an avalanche-like decline. According to this conservative mathematical scenario, within just 40 years, the planet's population could rapidly decrease by exactly half, occurring as early as 2064.

The authors hurried to reassure the public. They emphasize that this figure is not a guaranteed forecast of future weather. It is merely a visual mathematical illustration showing how significantly and sensitively the dynamics of humanity depend on the whims of the environment and large-scale social upheavals. Currently, the trajectory of our development remains relatively stable. Nevertheless, the transfer of fundamental ideas from physics to population science has proven an important point.

A unified mathematical language can successfully explain both the behavior of atoms invisible to the eye and the laws by which human civilizations grow or suddenly collapse over the centuries.