The ban on flavored e-cigarettes, although justified by health considerations, has contributed to the flourishing of the shadow economy, said shadow economy researcher Professor Arnis Sauka in an interview with the TV3 program "900 Seconds."
"In this situation, the efforts of politicians to impose bans bring nothing positive — neither for reducing consumption, nor for protecting youth, nor for reducing the illegal market. On the contrary — the opposite is happening," noted Sauka.
He explained that the main findings of the study do not align with the goals set in state policy: bans and increased excise taxes have not reduced consumption or the influx of new users. "Yes, the legal market is declining," emphasized Sauka, adding that part of the demand is shifting to illegal channels — through the internet and with the free movement of goods across Europe.
Official data shows a sharp rise in the shadow market: in 2022, the share of the illegal segment in the disposable e-cigarette market was 24.2%, in 2023 it was 26.8%, in 2024 it was 31.4%, and in the first four months of 2025, it was already 42.4% of total consumption.
"And even by the most modest estimates, at least 30%, and more likely around 50% of consumers of these products purchase them illegally," noted Sauka.
He also reminded that illegal sellers have quickly adapted and use platforms such as Telegram, as well as other channels to organize large-scale trade. According to him, the market is adapting and circumventing regulation by using algorithms and other tricks, making control difficult.
In addition to economic losses, Sauka warned of health risks — the unknown origin and composition of illegal liquids pose a serious threat to users, especially young people.
"We have no idea what is in these cartridges," he said, adding that dangerous substances may also be spread along with such products.
In conclusion, Sauka emphasized that the current approach — banning flavors and increasing excise taxes — "brings nothing positive: neither a reduction in consumption, nor protection for youth, nor a decrease in the illegal market — on the contrary." He urged politicians to reconsider regulatory tools and focus on educating parents, schools, and society as a whole as additional measures to reduce risks.
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