People infected with the Ebola virus in African countries can reach the largest transit airports in Europe and Asia within 30 days.
This conclusion was reached by Japanese researchers Ryo Kinoshita, Motoi Suzuki, and Daisuke Yoneoki. The results of the mathematical modeling were published on the medRxiv portal.
The authors of the study analyzed the flight routes that passengers from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda could potentially use. The model took into account international transfers and the intensity of air traffic between countries.
According to calculations, in an unfavorable scenario, the probability of an infected passenger appearing in Belgium reaches 92%, in France — 91%, in the United Arab Emirates — 88%, and in Turkey — 86%.
The study included data on 11,264 airports, 569,741 flight routes, and approximately 330 million passengers. The researchers noted that the forecast is intended for operational monitoring of the international epidemiological situation.
