In recent weeks, Russian troops have made gains in several directions.
Ukraine is not yet ready to capitulate, but it "looks weak enough for the Russians to think they can make demands," analysts at The New York Times note.
The situation on the battlefield is not in Ukraine's favor, as Russian troops advance on several fronts, giving Russian leader Vladimir Putin grounds to take an uncompromising stance in negotiations and refuse any concessions on a peace plan, The New York Times writes.
"The Russians do have an advantage," said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst at the Finnish organization Black Bird Group. Ukraine is not yet ready to capitulate, he said, but it "looks weak enough for the Russians to think they can make demands."
As confirmed by battle maps, analysts, and soldiers, in recent weeks Russian troops have made gains in several directions. They are close to capturing Pokrovsk and have nearly surrounded the neighboring city of Myrnohrad. They are advancing faster in the southern part of Zaporizhzhia. They are approaching Kupiansk and making progress in the area of Siversk.
"The future looks very, very bleak for Ukraine," Kastehelmi stated. "I don’t see a clear way out of this situation."
The situation began to deteriorate
As the publication notes, starting from the autumn, the situation began to shift in favor of Russia.
"Since September, the situation on our side has started to deteriorate a bit," said Igor, a Ukrainian drone operator. "The line of defense has just begun to crumble from exhaustion."
Russian troops are sending in "Lightning" drones and waves of mini-kamikaze drones equipped with explosives, he said, adding that Ukraine has nothing similar in mass production.
Not just Pokrovsk under fire
At the same time, Russian troops have targeted other important cities in the Donetsk region, including Konstantynivka and Lyman. Oleg Voitsekhovsky, a Ukrainian captain whose unit is near Lyman, stated that Russian troops are attacking "constantly" and "from all directions."
Drone strikes and shelling never cease, he said: "In the last two months, there has been a noticeable increase in the intensity of hostilities."
Pokrovsk remains the epicenter of confrontation
As Maxim Bakulin, a serviceman of the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard, explained, a year ago the city was "alive," but now on the once-bustling streets of Pokrovsk, "the bodies of civilians and military are mixed, and there is no way to evacuate them."
At the same time, as Ukraine has concentrated many resources on this battle, Russian troops have seen an opportunity to attack elsewhere along the front line, in the southeastern part of Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine has sent some reserves to this area, which has helped slow the advance, "but the pace there is still quite alarming," Kastehelmi stated.
As the battle for Pokrovsk enters its final stage, concerns are growing for the neighboring city of Myrnohrad. Russia storms Ukrainian positions there daily, said platoon commander Oleg, and drones have turned the roads into deadly traps:
"Neither day nor night do they give us peace… If we have three people, they have 30. The amount of their manpower is just unreal."
Prospects on the front
The onset of winter may slow the pace of the Russian offensive across a wide front, as well as the movements of Ukrainian troops. The dominance of drones further slows the pace of events, forcing a retreat from mass infantry attacks. However, Russia seemingly has an inexhaustible supply of soldiers and is willing to sustain heavy losses, waging a war that is compared to a meat grinder, writes NYT.
"Russia has committed to waging a war of attrition, and it is now trying to slowly and militarily break Ukraine," Kastehelmi said.
Earlier, the deputy commander of the 4th Battalion "Freedom Force" of the 4th Brigade "Rubezh" of the National Guard, Volodymyr Nazarenko, stated that the Russians do not abandon attempts to advance in the Pokrovsk direction. He emphasized that the situation remains very difficult.
The head of recruitment for the 10th Corps, Andriy, with the callsign "Strateg," shared that Ukrainian fighters are holding Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. He refuted Russian claims that the city has been captured.
