"We continue to wait for a political collapse in Russia."
The drone revolution on the Russian-Ukrainian front has made it impossible to repeat the rapid breakthroughs of troops into the strategic depth of enemy territory, as was the case in the early days of the full-scale invasion. And since the Kremlin refuses to engage in peace negotiations, the fate of the war will be determined by which economy and society collapses first - Ukraine or Russia. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
"Russia's refusal to ceasefire and the canceled peace summit in Budapest have created a grim prospect that the war in Ukraine will last for years. President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that Russia will eventually exhaust its smaller neighbor, leading to the collapse of the Ukrainian economy and society," the publication states.
The publication notes that despite the Kremlin's hopes, the situation for Ukraine is far from defeat. As strategic breakthroughs have become impossible due to the drone factor, Kyiv hopes to achieve victory by economically exhausting Russia through deep strikes on its oil and gas infrastructure - the lifeblood of Putin's military machine.
"The Ukrainian strategy, as ridiculous as it may seem, is a mirror reflection of Russia's strategy: to do everything possible to ensure that the Russian economy collapses before Ukraine's," says Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev, who now lives in Kyiv.
A former high-ranking member of Zelensky's administration, whose name is not disclosed, told WSJ that the war is likely to last for several more years, as both sides have the capacity to continue fighting. In his opinion, the conflict will end either with the collapse of the Russian imperial project or the disappearance of an independent Ukraine.
"We continue to wait for a political collapse in Russia, as happened with Germany in 1918 when it lost the war, despite the fact that at that time there were no enemy soldiers on German soil. This collapse is not happening now. But sooner or later, such things always happen," says Russian economist Konstantin Sonin, now a professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.
Ukrainian political scientist Vyacheslav Potapenko believes that the war in Ukraine will continue until China and the United States sort things out and agree on a new balance of power in the world. According to him, the war in Ukraine has become an important part of the confrontation between the Global West and the Global South.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, believes that Russia is still holding on in the war solely because Western sanctions against its oil and gas sector have been limited and insufficiently effective.
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