In 2025, the Sun was very active, producing many powerful solar flares as well as coronal mass ejections. These events led to repeated occurrences of magnetic storms on Earth. Next year, the Sun may bring new surprises, writes Focus.
Solar activity is not constant. It increases during an 11-year cycle at solar maximum and decreases during solar minimum. During solar maximum, there are more solar flares and coronal mass ejections on the Sun. This often leads to a more frequent occurrence of strong geomagnetic storms on Earth. The Sun is currently in the middle of the 25th solar cycle, which began in 2019. The end of 2024 and all of 2025 is considered the period of solar maximum. What to expect from the Sun in 2026, writes Space.
The next solar maximum occurred in October 2024 and lasted almost all of 2025. The Sun is now experiencing a decline in activity, which is likely to continue into 2026. But this does not mean that the occurrence of strong magnetic storms is impossible next year.
This year, the Sun produced 19 X-class flares – the most powerful solar flares. However, only four of them were above the X2 level. So far, the most powerful flare this year, classified as X5.1, occurred on November 11, as Focus has already reported. By comparison, in 2024, the Sun experienced more than 50 X-class solar flares, 20 of which exceeded the X2 level. In 2024, the most powerful flare, classified as X9, was also recorded in the 25th solar cycle.
Strong solar flares typically generate coronal mass ejections, which are plasma ejections from the Sun's atmosphere. Strong coronal mass ejections occur alongside X-class flares. If the plasma flow is directed toward Earth, it collides with the magnetic field of our planet and causes a geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetic storms are classified on a scale from G1 to G5. This year, the third strongest geomagnetic storm of the 25th solar cycle reached level G4. This occurred on November 11. In 2024, two geomagnetic storms of levels G5 and G4 occurred on Earth in May and October, respectively. Can we expect similarly strong magnetic storms in 2026?
Although solar activity is currently declining, this does not mean that there are no chances for the occurrence of the most powerful solar flares and magnetic storms.
Historically, the strongest such events usually occur during the decline of solar maximum. Observations indicate that there is a possibility of seeing X-class flares of X10 and higher in 2026. This means that G5-level geomagnetic storms (the most powerful) are also possible.
It is worth noting that in 2003, during the decline of solar maximum, an X40 flare appeared on the Sun. As a result, two consecutive G5-level geomagnetic storms occurred.
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