You don't often see this in Latvian politics: the main events unfolded not on a weekday, but on a Sunday evening! It feels like both conflicting parties simply could not wait until Monday.
Siliņa Played Ahead
I don’t know who in the Latvian political drama lost their appetite, but on Sunday, May 10, events unfolded rapidly. Right after 6:00 PM, Minister of Defense Andris Sprūds ("Progressives") announced that he would hold a press conference at 7:00 PM.
It was not hard to guess that the head of the Ministry of Defense decided to urgently gather journalists on a weekend not to talk about his life or share the weather forecast. It was clear to everyone that Sprūds intended to announce his resignation. This was also clear to the head of government, who decided to play ahead and... just 7 minutes before Sprūds' press conference announced that... she was dismissing the Minister of Defense!
It should be noted that last week drones "visited" Latvia again — according to preliminary information, these were "messengers" from Ukraine, which first flew to Russia but were apparently redirected by electronic warfare means. It turned out that not only did the military fail to shoot down the drones, but they also could not determine their exact number! Only a day later, the police confirmed that not one, but two drones had entered the empty reservoir of the oil storage in Rezekne!
"Minister of Defense Andris Sprūds has lost my and the public's trust. I have decided to demand the resignation of Minister of Defense Andris Sprūds. The defense sector must be led by a professional going forward. I informed the minister and coalition partners about this decision today.
The incident with the drones this week clearly showed that the political leadership of the defense sector failed to fulfill the promise of a safe sky over our country. Society has entrusted the sector with historically the largest funding — almost 5% of GDP. This is a huge responsibility that requires clear results.
I believe that the sector needs a new, professional approach. I invited Colonel Raivis Melnīs to take the position of Minister of Defense, and he agreed. His previous experience in the National Armed Forces, military education in London, and current work in Ukraine create confidence that the country's defense will be managed competently, purposefully, and outside of election rhetoric," the Prime Minister's statement said.
Public Whipping of Partners
To say that Evika Siliņa publicly "whipped" her power partners is an understatement! Not only did she "steal" Sprūds' opportunity to "leave gracefully," but she also, in violation of the coalition agreement, did not propose that the "Progressives" nominate the next candidate for the post of Minister of Defense. Sprūds that same evening, at the press conference, accused Siliņa of playing dirty games and, in general, that "New Unity" is already flirting with the right opposition and does not want to look in the mirror. According to the resigned minister, "New Unity" shifts responsibility onto others and does not notice its own miscalculations and mistakes. Already yesterday after 2:00 PM, the baton of attacks on the prime minister's power was taken over by the head of the parliamentary faction "Progressives," candidate for prime minister from this political force Andris Shuvaevs. He believes that Siliņa and "New Unity" are "creating the ground for the formation of Shlesers' government." Shuvaevs also predicts that after the results of the State Audit Office's review regarding the government's support for wood processors appear on Wednesday, that is, tomorrow, there will be grounds to demand the resignation of Minister of Agriculture Armands Krauze (Union of Greens and Farmers).
Political logic suggests that it would be more beneficial for the "Progressives" in this situation to slam the door loudly — that is, leave the coalition and thereby, for example, not be responsible for the problems in Rail Baltica and airBaltic. However, apparently, they are very reluctant to part with ministerial posts and perhaps also with positions in the leadership of the Saeima! Therefore, the "Progressives" decided... to take a pause and invite the prime minister to their parliamentary faction tomorrow, where they will arrange something like an intense interrogation.
Three Scenarios for Development
What are the options for further developments?
Option One – The "Progressives" remain de jure in the government and even agree — under the pretext of caring for the state's security — to vote for the non-partisan Melnīs as Minister of Defense. But at the same time, the "Progressives" declare that they no longer consider themselves bound by the coalition agreement. This means that the government essentially becomes a minority government, and each time a ruling party wants to pass a decision, it needs to seek support from the opposition.
Option Two – The "Progressives" leave the government, and thus the government becomes "technical," meaning it quietly works until the Saeima elections or rather — until the new Saeima forms a new government. But a technical government can only work in this format, without a Saeima majority, if the majority of deputies in the Saeima do not initiate and vote for a vote of no confidence in the government. If the Saeima "dismisses" the government or the prime minister, then this government still works until the next government is formed — either in this or the next Saeima.
Option Three – Part of the ruling coalition and part of the opposition create a new government. The National Alliance already announced yesterday its readiness to create such a government — in cooperation with "New Unity," the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the United List. Theoretically, such a government can be formed in a couple of weeks, that is, by the end of May and before the parliament goes on summer recess. It is obvious that in any scenario, the "Progressives" remain in opposition. The other matter is that the current opposition is not very eager to take power now, as there are no good solutions for the people from either the current government or the new one!
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