Yesterday evening, as this material was being prepared for publication, the ruling party continued to air grievances at the coalition council meeting.
Despite all the optimistic statements from Evika Silina, the government partners were not thinking about "taking a pause," that is, reaching a truce at least until the adoption of the 2026 budget. Moreover, the "Green Farmers" struck back at the Prime Minister and "New Unity." They addressed the head of government and her party with a stern statement.
Not a Day Without Disputes
As is known, after the story with the "Green Farmers" voting on the Istanbul Convention, the Prime Minister publicly reprimanded the Minister of Welfare Rainis Uzulnieks (Union of Greens and Farmers) and demanded that he present a report (more details on page 3) on Latvia's compliance with the provisions of the Istanbul Convention at the next government meeting, which is today, October 7.
It is clear that this further escalated the situation within the coalition. And just a day before the government meeting and two hours before the coalition council, the Union of Greens and Farmers issued a statement demanding explanations from the Prime Minister and her party regarding a recent high-profile incident that occurred in Liepaja. Specifically, a kebab shop worker - a native of Pakistan - allegedly made inappropriate proposals to a kebab shop visitor - an 11-year-old girl.
Politicians and Children
"The Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) notes that the Prime Minister's refusal to include this issue in the agenda of the coalition cooperation meeting forming the government creates the impression of an unwillingness to address significant issues in society regarding migration.
The UGF emphasizes that such a case is a serious signal in the field of public safety and child protection, and the government should respond responsibly and openly, rather than avoiding discussion on this matter.
The UGF reminds that this case falls under the scope of the Istanbul Convention, which aims to protect women and children from any violence or harassment. If "New Unity" avoids discussion and decisions related to migrants even under such circumstances, it confirms doubts about the feasibility of this convention, and the UGF calls on the party union "New Unity" to support Latvia's withdrawal from the convention.
"If the Prime Minister and "New Unity" cannot react even when potential sexual harassment concerns a child, then discussions about the Istanbul Convention become empty and meaningless. Society has the right to expect actions, not silence," emphasize representatives of the UGF.
No Miracles?
It is evident that the head of government will now have to respond to the incident in Liepaja. The very tone of the statement and the hints made only confirm the determination of the "Green Farmers" to go all the way regarding Latvia's withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention.
By the way, tomorrow the Saeima's Foreign Affairs Committee will consider the draft law on withdrawal from the convention in the first reading. In this committee, the opposition holds an absolute majority, and only a miracle could stop the process of further advancing the initiative to withdraw from the convention.
Meirinya and Her Warm Place
Does this mean that the government will ultimately collapse? According to political logic, it seems it should — after all, we see that partners can no longer "tolerate each other" and continue to air their grievances in public. However, in politics, the human factor plays a significant role.
And if, for example, some deputies from the UGF, unburdened by posts, believe that it is time to "slam the door loudly," then the ministers from the UGF have something to lose, namely — their portfolios. What guarantee is there that in a new government configuration these same politicians will retain their ministerial portfolios? If the coalition becomes broader, it is clear that at least one ministerial portfolio will be fewer for the "Green Farmers."
For this reason, it is likely that the Speaker of the Saeima, Daiga Meirinya, did not support the demarche of her own political union — the Union of Greens and Farmers. She did not participate at all in the vote on the issue of withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention. Later, in a television interview, she stated directly that she "does not want to participate in political games." This is understandable: if a new coalition is formed, then positions will be redistributed anew — there is a risk that as a result of bargaining, the Speaker's post may move from the UGF to another party. It would be strange if Ms. Meirinya willingly agreed to part with the status of the second person in the state a year before the elections.
What Will the "Progressives" Say
In general, the government may wobble for a long time, but — at least in the coming months — it is unlikely to collapse. Unless, of course, it is not the "Green Farmers" but the "Progressives" who decide on a radical move and leave the government themselves — in the event that the Saeima passes the draft law on withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention.
Perhaps this act would be appreciated by the voters of the "Progressives." But again, are the VIP figures from the "Progressives" ready to lose their positions and go into opposition? After all, it is quite clear that if this government collapses, they will not be taken into the new one!
Plan "B"
However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves — while the government is functioning, it needs to push through the 2026 budget project through the Saeima at all costs. This will also be difficult since the ruling party has recently been unable to secure a majority in parliament.
As we have already written, at the last plenary session, the ruling party had only 46 votes, and as a result, the opposition simply disrupted the quorum... The head of the "New Unity" parliamentary faction, Edmunds Jurēvics, has already proposed a "Plan B" to his partners. It involves... persuading the "state-minded" independent Saeima deputies to vote for the 2026 budget.
Who could play the role of these "state-minded"? Currently, there are already 10 independent deputies in parliament. Two of them have long joined the ruling coalition — Oleg Burow and Igor Raev. Without them, the government would have lost its majority long ago. It is unlikely that the ruling party finds it worthwhile to approach those independent deputies who left the "Stability!" party but still vote against government initiatives, effectively joining the "Latvia First" faction.
It is hard to imagine that veteran Latvian politician Alexander Kiršteins, who once left the National Alliance protesting against that party's support for the "New Unity" course at that time, would vote for the budget.
In fact, only two deputies remain with whom it is "possible to work" - those are the ones who left the "Progressives" faction, Edgars Zelders and Skaidrīte Abrahama. The latter, by the way, voted against the opposition's proposal to express no confidence in Evika Silina.
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