From full-scale war to isolated acts of sabotage – this is how former head of the Latvian Satversme Protection Bureau (intelligence and counterintelligence), retired British General Jānis Kažociņš, sees Russia's behavior. He stated this in an interview with LTV.
According to Kažociņš, there are four scenarios for possible attacks by Russia on the Baltic States, Finland, or Poland:
1. A full-scale war, like against Ukraine;
2. An intense limited-scale war, similar to Israel's actions against Lebanese Hezbollah;
3. Destruction of energy facilities, for example, through sabotage;
4. Isolated acts of sabotage.
While the first three scenarios would involve the activation of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, bringing the entire alliance into play, the last scenario does not reach the level of Article 5 and, according to the expert, is the most likely.
Among possible acts of sabotage, Kažociņš mentions sabotage of energy infrastructure, cutting underwater cables, and attacks on information technology.
Plus disinformation – when the adversary tries to influence the population so that people believe it is better to live a quiet life regardless of who is in power.
"And I have particular concerns about the structures of the Ministry of the Interior, how they are equipped and what their funding is. Because they will be just as close, on the front line, as the armed forces. These are firefighters, rescuers, and medics. And very often they are hit a second time to eliminate them specifically," said Jānis Kažociņš.
