If Russia were preparing an escalation against the Baltics, there would be noticeable other signs - expert 0 26

The expert emphasized that the statements of the SVR are not based on facts and there are currently no indicators that would suggest a real risk of military escalation in the Baltic region.

"The Russian SVR has essentially become a kind of disinformation agency during the war," noted Astukevich.

According to him, similar messages had previously been reported regarding alleged plans to eliminate the graves of Soviet soldiers in Latvia or a possible NATO invasion of Moldova. In the expert's assessment, this shows that during the war, the SVR is increasingly involved in information and psychological operations, trying to demonstrate its significance to the political leadership of Russia.

Commenting on the public statements of the SVR about allegedly stationed Ukrainian drone forces in Latvia and the possible use of Latvian airspace for attacks on Russia, Astukevich emphasized that these claims are not supported by evidence.

The goal of such messages is to create psychological tension, attempt to intimidate the Baltic countries, divide allies, and weaken support for Ukraine, the expert pointed out. Russia is also using the discussions of recent weeks about drone incidents in Latvian airspace to escalate tensions in the information space.

"The political environment is quite tense, and the Russian side assesses this, so it uses the opportunity to somehow instrumentalize this situation," said Astukevich.

The expert emphasized that there are currently no signs indicating that Russia is preparing for military escalation against the Baltic states. He noted that Russia's main focus remains on the war in Ukraine, and information operations against the Baltic countries primarily serve to create political and psychological pressure.

If there were real military threats, there would be other indicators following them — for example, troop deployments or other military signals.

"Right now, we do not see signs that would indicate a real military threat. This would certainly be noticed by senior officials and services of our state," he said.

The expert believes that it is important for Latvian and NATO officials to continue publicly refuting false claims and clearly explain the security situation in the region. At the same time, he predicts that aggressive rhetoric in the information space is unlikely to decrease in the near future.

This is linked both to the difficult situation in the economy and domestic politics of Russia, as well as to the course of the war in Ukraine, which is not developing as successfully for Russia as initially planned. In such conditions, the narrative of an external threat serves the Russian leadership as a tool for mobilizing society and diverting attention from internal problems.

As previously reported by LETA, the SVR spread claims that Ukraine is allegedly preparing strikes on the rear regions of Russia from the territory of the Baltic states, and Ukrainian military personnel are supposedly already deployed in Latvia. Senior officials in Latvia emphasize in their statements that Russia is lying.