In March, due to rising prices in global markets triggered by the war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, the Russian budget received $19 billion from oil sales, nearly double that of February.
Russia's revenues from oil sales nearly doubled in March compared to February due to the conflict in the Middle East, amounting to $19 billion, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In February, before the start of the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, Russia earned $9.75 billion from oil exports, the lowest figure since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. According to the IEA, in March, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 270,000 barrels per day to 4.6 million barrels. The increase was driven by maritime supplies, as the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine, remained non-operational due to damage, noted Reuters.
The U.S. Temporarily Exempted Russian Oil from Sanctions
At the beginning of March, The Financial Times reported that the sharp rise in global oil prices amid the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran was bringing about $150 million in additional revenue to the Russian budget daily. Sumit Ritoli, a leading analyst at Kpler, then called Russia the "main winner" in the new war in the Middle East.
At the same time, the U.S. temporarily exempted the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto ships from sanctions. A license allowing such transactions was published on March 12 on the U.S. Treasury's website. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen, this decision was made by U.S. President Donald Trump to "ensure stability in global energy markets and maintain low prices."
The American minister also noted that this "narrowly specialized, short-term measure" would not bring "significant financial benefits to the Russian government, which derives most of its revenues from energy sources through taxes levied at the extraction site." Bessen described the rise in oil prices as a "short-term and temporary disruption" that would "bring enormous benefits" to the U.S. in the long run.
IEA Predicts Difficulties for Russia in Increasing Production
Oil production in Russia rose to 8.96 million barrels per day in March, compared to 8.67 million in February. Despite this, in the short term, Russia is likely to face difficulties in increasing oil production beyond early-year levels, predicts the IEA. The agency links this to damage to oil refineries, port, and energy infrastructure in the Baltic and Black Seas as a result of Ukrainian attacks.
Due to the war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, the IEA revised its global forecasts. Instead of an increase in demand of 640,000 barrels per day in 2026, there will be a decrease of 80,000 barrels, marking the sharpest decline since the pandemic. Supply is expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day instead of increasing by 1.1 million. According to the IEA's forecast, the global oil market will face shortages and persistently high prices, writes "Deutsche Welle."
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