Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering scenarios for closer coordination with Washington due to escalating tensions.
Yemeni Houthis may close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if the Gulf monarchies militarily support the U.S. and Israel's operation against Iran.
Yemen remains divided between two centers of influence. The Houthi movement 'Ansar Allah' (with Iranian support) controls the capital Sanaa, the northwestern regions, and the Red Sea coast with the port of Hodeidah. The camp under the aegis of Saudi Arabia is considered the opponent of the Houthis. Previously, the Arab coalition was split into Saudi and Emirati wings, but this split has been resolved in favor of Riyadh.
Western media, including the Wall Street Journal, have reported in recent weeks on the potential expansion of involvement of the Gulf Arab monarchies in a possible military campaign against Iran.
According to the publication, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering scenarios for closer coordination with Washington due to escalating tensions and attacks in the region. There were separate reports of possible U.S. support from the UAE regarding maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.
The threat of closing Bab-el-Mandeb came a week after the Houthis effectively entered the conflict, striking Israel with ballistic missiles and drones in support of Iran. These were the first attacks from Yemeni territory in almost six months — they had previously ceased after a ceasefire in Gaza in the fall of 2025.
Yemeni economist Nazim Saleh notes that the potential destabilization of both key points — the Bab-el-Mandeb and Hormuz straits — creates unprecedented risks for global oil trade and container shipping. If such scenarios are realized, a significant portion of supplies between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East will either be redirected or become significantly more expensive.
Bab-el-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It is considered a key link in global trade: about 12% of maritime oil passes through the strait, up to 15% of global maritime trade, and a significant portion of container shipping between Asia and Europe. Together with the Suez Canal, it provides the shortest and most economical route from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
According to Nazim Saleh's estimates, in the event of a complete closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, global supplies could decrease by 4.2–5 million barrels per day, and tankers would have to be redirected around Africa, leading to increased logistics costs and delivery times.
— In a baseline scenario, the price could rise to $120–150 per barrel, while in the case of a prolonged blockade and parallel problems in the Hormuz Strait, prices could reach $150–200 and higher, which would become one of the most serious oil shocks in recent decades, — the expert stated.
