The main headache lies in the eastern depressed regions of the country.
Elections are likely to shake up coalition politics in Germany and could herald significant changes in the republic. Here is a brief overview of forecasts and prospects, take note.
The black-red coalition, consisting of the center-right parties CDU and CSU and the center-left Social Democrats, took the reins of the federal government of Germany at a rather convenient time. With the oath of office set for May 6, 2025, there are still nine months until the state elections — ideal conditions to focus on important projects without the pressure of election campaigns.
However, several months have passed, and the government of Friedrich Merz and the coalition do not appear convincing when it comes to domestic politics. This includes, for example, the failed attempt to appoint a federal judge and the failure to fulfill promises to lower electricity prices for households and stabilize health insurance contributions. It has become clear that the black-red leaders are facing more serious problems than they seem to have anticipated.
So, what can be expected in Germany's domestic politics next year? We present an overview of the upcoming elections in state parliaments, which we will closely monitor throughout the year, as well as some important reforms that the federal government is expected to implement.
Political Battles: Southwest
In 2026, elections are scheduled in five states. The SPD is likely to lose control of the prime ministerial posts in some states. The first elections will take place in March 2026 in the southwestern states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.
In Baden-Württemberg, the current Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) is stepping down, leaving his successor Cem Özdemir to fight for the leadership position in the state. However, unless significant changes occur, it seems that CDU candidate Manuel Hagel has a better chance of becoming prime minister.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the prime minister's post is likely to shift from the SPD to the CDU. If this happens, it will increase pressure on the SPD leadership. The party has been struggling since the last federal elections, where it achieved its worst result since 1887. It is losing its electorate.
Thus, the star of the FDP is fading before our eyes. The Free Democrats, who played an important role in Germany's political landscape, have lost it.
Political Battles: East
But the main headache lies in the eastern depressed regions of the country. Things are already not going well here, and voters may try to push the situation into a complete deadlock. There is a possibility that the pro-Moscow party Alternative for Germany (AfD) could win some elections in the states. This would create complications regarding who could lead the government in one of the states.
Interesting events are likely to occur in the lead-up to and after the elections in the eastern and northeastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September. The anti-immigrant populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) enjoys significant support in some areas of these states — up to 40 percent, according to recent polls. However, its participation in political life is limited by a firewall, as no one wants to work with it.
In Saxony-Anhalt, political commentators have begun to speculate that this party may take the prime minister's post for the first time. However, this would require radical upheavals that would elevate the anti-system party, which declares its alternative to German democracy by its very name, to a mainstream trend.
All other parties in Saxony-Anhalt continue to reject the idea of forming a coalition with the Alternative for Germany (AfD). At the time of writing, the latest poll results show that a majority coalition without the AfD is only possible within a four-party alliance: CDU, SPD, BSW, and the Left. If all of them make it into the state parliament. This would essentially be a united front against the far-right radicals. Why not?
But how successful will it be? The CDU is currently completely rejecting the idea of forming a coalition with the Left.
A similar situation exists in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. There, the SPD is currently in the state government but is significantly trailing behind the Alternative for Germany in poll results.
Berlin
On September 20, elections will also take place in Berlin. In the capital, the CDU, SPD, and Greens still have a clear joint majority. The Alternative for Germany is not liked in Berlin. It garners about 15 percent of the votes. However, that is still not insignificant.
When considering the situation in light of external threats (military danger from Russia and the crisis of Atlantic solidarity), the strengthening of the AfD plays into the hands of the enemies of German democracy. Although the states do not have significant influence on the country's foreign policy.
Social Reforms: How Radical Will They Be?
As national election campaigns gradually unfold, the federal government also intends to promote a number of social reforms.
Among the planned reforms is the reform of unemployment benefits, Bürgergeld, which is set to come into effect in the first half of the year.
Regarding health insurance and pensions, commissions will convene to discuss reforms. There are grounds to doubt that serious steps will be agreed upon here. For example, calls have been made to raise the retirement age, but the SPD has always rejected this proposal.
Another contentious issue that could lead to conflicts within the coalition concerns whether to include civil servants in the mandatory pension system.
Half of Voters Expect Government Collapse
According to a YouGov poll commissioned by the German news agency, only nine percent of Germans believe that the conflict between the Union and the SPD will ease next year. Almost half (49 percent) believe that the situation will remain the same as it has been, while 21 percent expect an escalation of disagreements.
Confidence that the current government will remain stable over the next three years until the next elections is also quite shaky. Almost half of Germans (49 percent) believe that the black-red coalition will collapse sooner, with 17 percent expecting a collapse next year and another 32 percent expecting it a year after that.
About one in three expects the alliance to last until 2029.
However, these expectations only create a worrying backdrop, but political will can change the situation. It remains to be sought and found.
