The Risk of a New Missile War Between Iran and Israel is Growing 0 8

The Chief of Staff of the IDF, Eyal Zamir, spoke on Saturday, December 20, with the commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Brad Cooper, and stated that the missile exercises initiated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could be used as a cover for a sudden strike against Israel. This was reported by Axios, citing three Israeli and American sources.

According to Axios, an Israeli source assessed the likelihood of an Iranian attack as 'below 50%', but emphasized that after the events of October 7, 2023, the Israeli side is not willing to take risks and consider what is happening as 'just exercises.' At the same time, an American source told Axios that U.S. intelligence has no signs of preparations for an immediate attack from Iran.

Axios notes that the main risk is escalation due to miscalculation, where each side may decide that the other is preparing for a strike and attempt to act preemptively. The publication also states that, according to Israeli intelligence assessments, Iran is currently showing signs of resuming its missile capability buildup with greater motivation than in previous months.

Earlier, the news service of the Kan media corporation reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a series of consultations with security system representatives regarding Iran's attempts to restore and increase its missile capabilities after the last confrontation.

Leading Israeli media discussed the threat of a new war with Iran throughout the day on December 21. Channel 12 reminds that before the last war with Iran, Netanyahu stated that Tehran's missile program poses an 'immediate existential threat to Israel.' During the war, Israel managed to destroy about half of the launchers, part of the arsenal, and production facilities, but Iran was able to restore production without outside help.

Dani Sitrinovich, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated in an interview with N12 that Iran is restoring its missile capabilities faster than expected, as it has both knowledge and experience. For Iran, the next war is just a matter of time. According to NBC estimates, Iran could increase its production capacity to 3,000 missiles per year.

According to reports from Israeli channels, during his visit to the U.S., Netanyahu was set to present Trump with various options for addressing the Iranian issue. However, it is noted that regarding Tehran's nuclear program, Trump is fully on Israel's side. At the same time, there are doubts in Jerusalem that Trump will give the 'green light' for a strike against Iran, which could lead to an escalation of tensions in the region.