Russia would have the option to choose between several complementary offensive operations.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin, during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, demanded that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War write that such a concession would create conditions for Russia to resume its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing.
"ISW continuously assesses that the concession of the remaining part of the Donetsk region is disproportionately beneficial to Russia," the analysts note.
They explain that the Donetsk region is strategically important for the defense and defense-industrial base of Ukraine. Currently, Russian forces lack the available means for a rapid encirclement or penetration of the fortified belt—the main line of defense for Ukraine in this region, the capture of which is likely to take several years at their current pace of advance.
As the analysts point out, conceding the Donetsk region would allow Russian forces to avoid a long and bloody struggle and continue combat operations in the deep rear areas of Ukraine from new positions. It would also provide the Russians with advantageous positions to strike at the eastern areas of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions or the south of Kharkiv region, which are significantly less fortified than the fortified belt. Additionally, this would create more favorable conditions for the ongoing Russian offensive across the Oskil River in eastern Kharkiv region towards Izium.
"Russia would have the option to choose between several complementary offensive operations in the event of Ukraine conceding the Donetsk region to Russia, especially if there are no guarantees that Russia will not resume offensive operations in Ukraine," ISW concludes.
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