The purpose of the Russian drone flights over NATO territory is not to attack the alliance, but to deter support for Ukraine. This was stated in an interview with LTV by former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer. He also said that if Russia invades one of the alliance's countries, the soldiers on the ground will be able to engage in combat without invoking Article 5.
The admiral spoke with LTV correspondent Paula Markusa.
Paula Markusa: In your opinion, was NATO's response to the drone incidents sufficient to signal to Russia that the alliance can withstand a real attack and therefore deter it?
Rob Bauer: Russia's goal is not to attack us. Russia's goal is to start a discussion in our countries about the fact that Ukraine has been given a lot of weapons, and perhaps we should stop supplying weapons to Ukraine because we need them for ourselves. (...) Therefore, we must continue to support Ukraine, and we must continue to assess what they are doing and respond accordingly. (...) But these drone flights are not how Russia will attack us.
What makes you so confident that Russia's goal is not to attack us?
Because that is still the assessment of governments. That is why I am so confident. However, this needs to be assessed each time, and after a series of more dangerous and threatening actions, we may come to a different conclusion. But so far, this is not the beginning of a military conflict.
So you do not rule out the possibility of conflict, but what actions would then be considered an attack on the alliance?
A military attack requires a threat of destruction of infrastructure by missiles or tanks — that is one. Crossing the border with military force. Of course, with troops. However, regarding hybrid attacks, we as an alliance have decided that hybrid attacks can also be the beginning of invoking Article 5. That is, the policy is such that it is possible to jointly agree that the scale of violations caused by hybrid attacks is such that we consider it a situation for invoking the fifth article. This is possible. (...) But at the moment, given Russia's previous actions, I want to say that we do not consider this could be the beginning of a military conflict.
I get the impression that Article 5 can be interpreted in different ways. How can we be sure that it will be invoked at the right moment if we have allies like Hungary and Slovakia?
There are many powers associated with the Supreme Commander of the NATO Allied Forces in Europe that do not require the support of other countries. That is, if an attack occurs on Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, or any other country, and it is assessed as a military attack, then the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe will use the forces at his disposal to combat these threats within his powers. We do not wait for the powers and consent of all allies; he will start the war. Even if a decision has not yet been made. Therefore, people think that we need to wait for a meeting to take place, and then... No, no. If we are attacked, he will wage war with the forces available to us. And we have eight battle groups along the eastern flank. The battle group in Latvia is led by Canada. (...)
If the Russians attack Latvia, they are actually attacking, in my opinion, 11 countries,
because there are 11 countries in this battle group. So Canadian soldiers will fight for Latvia. (...) And if tensions rise, if there is a concentration of troops at the borders with Belarus or Russia, then the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces will order an increase in the number of these battle groups from 1,000 to 5,000, from a battalion to a brigade.
You yourself said in one of your previous interviews that a small Russian attack, for example, in Estonia, would not lead to the invocation of Article 5. So how can we be sure...
Yes, and after that, I gave another interview because a storm arose regarding that interview. It seems it was in a German newspaper or in German. And then during the summit on Estonian television, I gave another interview to explain what I meant. First of all, the alliance will always respond. Always.
And then the question arises: if the Russians carry out some specific action, is that considered a military attack? Is it the beginning of an invasion or occupation of territory? If so, there will be a counter-strike and there will be the fifth article. But there can also be hybrid actions of a smaller scale, such as drones in Poland, malicious arson in Poland, an attempt to kill the CEO of Rheinmetall in Germany, and all of this was done by the Russians. This does not automatically trigger the invocation of Article 5. So whether to consider it an invasion depends heavily on the situation,
What if it is not a direct invasion?
If they come into a village, burn a house, and go back, then that is a hybrid attack. It is illegal. Absolutely. But that does not mean that we are then automatically at war with Russia. Consultations will take place under Article 4 because Estonia will definitely tell allies in the North Atlantic Council: the Russians came and burned this house. We have evidence, and then we will discuss it, and then we will act, namely — send more forces to this region and help the Estonian government better protect its borders. Therefore, NATO will always respond, but we must be careful not to say that everything that happens automatically leads to Article 5.
Do you think Russia wants war with NATO?
I know that they have intentions regarding our territory because they have told us so. In December 2021, they stated that they wanted a buffer zone. They did not say they wanted to occupy Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, and other Baltic countries. They did not say they wanted to invade, but they wanted a buffer zone, and that meant they did not want allied forces in those countries, and they wanted NATO exercises to take place only two or three weeks a year with no more than one brigade involved. And NATO, of course, responded by saying that this is not your business; this is NATO territory. [...] Therefore, we told them "no," but we know they have ambitions. We must be ready. Therefore, we are modernizing our military plans.
