How can one say in one line what this year was like? In general, like any other – for some, it was just the beginning, while for others, it was the opposite.
Despite the fact that all year Latvia was led by a prime minister, who with her three children can be quite qualified as a mother of many children in our conditions, the youth followed the example of Evika Silina rather weakly.
Thus, in the 2025/26 academic year, for the FIRST time since the restoration of independence, less than 20,000 children went to the 1st grade – specifically, 19,956. In 2024, there were 20,657, and in 2023 – 21,584.
Demographer Zane Varpinija assesses the impact of these trends on the Latvian education system as dramatic. The forecasts are quite grim: by 2030, only about 13,000 children will go to school. In the next 25 years, researchers estimate that the number of children of primary school age may decrease by about 40%, and the number of children of secondary school age by 48%.
The number of young people aged 16-18 will decrease by about 3,000, which means a reduction in school students.
But there is also a positive forecast: the number of students in higher education institutions may increase by 12,000: young people born before the economic crisis of 2008, when birth rates were higher, will grow up and begin (perhaps?) studying at local universities.
The Riga City Council is trying to "do something" in this regard: from the generosity of Mayor Viesturs Kleinbergs, starting January 1, 2026, the newborn allowance will be increased threefold – from 150 to 450 euros. Bank of Latvia economist Baiba Brusbarde believes that birth rates can be stimulated through social benefits, medical care, access to childcare services, access to housing for young families, and social factors.
So far, the average birth rate in Latvia since joining the European Union is about 1.6 children for a family (partner) couple. This does not even ensure simple population reproduction – it starts at a rate of 2. Unfortunately, the country is dying out...
According to experts, the number of newborns in Latvia is directly influenced by the decrease in the number of… women: "The number of newborns is likely to continue to decline in the near future, but the question is how much."
As for monetary subsidies, for example, an increase in the allowance by 25% raises the birth rate by about 4%. And if we believe such mathematics, then the capital's City Council raised the bar by 300% at once, and should Riga expect a 64% increase in birth rates? Unfortunately, one-time payments do not solve the problems, and they mostly affect low-income families. According to Ms. Brusbarde, benefits, of course, help, but in themselves do not radically change the situation.
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