Last year, 16 terrorist attacks occurred in Europe, and in the future, drones may increasingly be used in their execution, according to the 2025 review prepared by the Security Police (SP), writes LETA.
The Security Police notes that all terrorist attacks carried out in Europe last year were small-scale attacks with relatively few casualties. Most of the attacks—12 out of 16—were carried out by individuals inspired by Islamist terrorist propaganda. Four attacks were committed by supporters of other violent ideologies.
Additionally, the intelligence services of European countries managed to prevent 22 planned attacks at various stages of preparation: 15 from Islamists and 7 from adherents of other violent ideologies. The comparable number of prevented and executed attacks in recent years demonstrates that the threat of terrorism in Europe remains at a constant level.
Last year, terrorists continued to resort to simple methods that did not require lengthy preparation. In 12 out of 16 cases, they used sharp objects.
In three attacks, vehicles were used to drive into crowds; in one of these cases, a knife was also used. In one case, terrorists used homemade explosive devices.
Last year, there were no recorded attacks involving firearms; however, in several instances, European intelligence services discovered caches of weapons and ammunition among supporters of the Hamas terrorist group, as well as evidence of plans to use firearms for carrying out attacks.
In one investigation in Belgium, it was found that the perpetrators planned to use a drone to cause damage as part of a terrorist attack. The methods employed in other regions of the world in 2023, according to the Security Police, indicate that terrorists in Europe may increasingly use drones or remotely controlled devices packed with explosives for attacks, as stated in the review.
In 2023, the same trends in the terrorist threat persisted in Europe as in previous years. Terrorists primarily planned individual attacks, including to take revenge on Israel for events in the Middle East. This is evidenced by several prevented cases where attacks were planned against facilities associated with the Israeli diplomatic corps or the Jewish community.
In several European countries, a high level of terrorist threat will remain in 2026. The security situation will continue to be influenced by conflicts in the Middle East and other geopolitical events. Incidents targeting Jewish communities or facilities associated with Israel are possible in 2026.
The greatest terrorist threat in Europe will still come from Islamist terrorists, who, as in previous years, will carry out the majority of attacks. However, terrorist activity will also continue from right-wing and left-wing radicals.
It is expected that the main targets of terrorist attacks in Europe in 2026 will remain places of mass gatherings, law enforcement personnel, and symbolic sites. At the same time, the growing diversity of threats and the activation of terrorist groups in other regions of the world may negatively impact the security situation in European countries, including Latvia, the review emphasizes.
The Security Police predicts that the level of terrorist threat in Latvia will remain low this year. The main risks will still be the radicalization of individuals and possible involvement in violent actions under the influence of ideologies spread on internet platforms. There is also a threat associated with the possible entry into Latvia of individuals involved in terrorism.
At the same time, given the overall situation in the region, there remains an elevated risk concerning facilities exposed to terrorist threats. There is a likelihood that such facilities may become targets for reconnaissance activities or provocations.
The intelligence services of the aggressor state, Russia, will maintain interest and seek opportunities for sabotage against high-risk facilities, as well as symbolic sites, in order to intimidate society and reduce its support for Ukraine, the Security Police emphasizes.
The review also indicates that last year, a refugee applicant came to the attention of the Security Police, having previously attracted the attention of foreign partner services due to involvement in terrorist activities. The Security Police had information about this person's contacts with representatives of an Islamist terrorist group.
In cooperation with the State Border Guard, he was detained and placed in a center for the detention of foreign nationals. Subsequently, based on the recommendation of the Security Police, the Minister of the Interior included this refugee applicant in the list of foreigners banned from entering Latvia, and he was deported, which helped prevent a potential threat to the security of the state and society.
The Security Police also continued to monitor the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the security situation in Latvia. Within its powers, the service intensified monitoring in Latvian society, including the Muslim community. As a result of these activities, in 2023, the Security Police did not identify any messages justifying terrorism, calls for violent actions, or expressions of support for terrorist organizations in Latvia.
