Oligarch Deripaska: The Central Bank of Russia Acts with 'Some Unexplained and Senseless Determination'

Business
BB.LV
Publiation data: 20.03.2026 00:00

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The Middle Eastern crisis will not solve the fundamental problems of the Russian economy.

Russia faces 'serious losses' due to the conflict surrounding Iran, despite rising oil prices, warned businessman Oleg Deripaska. He believes that the shock from the surge in energy prices will slow down the global economy for a long time, and Russia will avoid significant damage only with a key rate of 6% and a weakening of the ruble to 105 per dollar.

"We need to abandon illusions — this sudden conflict in the Middle East will bring nothing good to Russia, despite the fact that prices for oil, gas, and fertilizers are rising, and it seems that the sanctions regime may weaken," Deripaska wrote on his Telegram channel.

According to him, "it is obvious to everyone" that high energy prices will cause the global economy to slow down 'seriously and for a long time.' Russia will also suffer serious losses in the global crisis, the businessman believes.

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In Deripaska's opinion, this scenario is particularly facilitated by the strengthening of the ruble initiated by the Central Bank to levels below 80 per dollar. This was done 'with some unexplained and senseless determination,' although as a result, the main sectors of the Russian economy lost competitiveness in foreign markets, the businessman pointed out.

"While there is still time, our macroeconomists from the Central Bank, who are wonderful at juggling numbers, need to get their act together — and gradually, over four to six months, lower the key rate to 6% and weaken the ruble to a level no lower than 105 per dollar. Then we will get through this crisis without significant losses," he is confident.

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Deripaska noted data from RBC, according to which Russians withdrew 1.6 trillion rubles from cards and savings accounts in January 2026, marking 'the second largest outflow in history.' He explained this by stating that the population senses 'unpleasant prospects' for the economy, 'crushed by high rates,' and is converting rubles into precious metals, other currencies, and real estate.

"This is quite a reasonable step," the businessman assessed.

Later, Deripaska reiterated his call to lower rates and stop 'senselessly restraining the weakening of the ruble' to prepare Russia for the approaching global crisis. He pointed out that the U.S. could not 'easily win' in Iran and that the war is only escalating.

"A very likely outcome is that the global economy will cough from high energy prices... This will inevitably hit our economy as well," he wrote, warning that without proper preparation, Russia will 'again step on a rake — to spite everyone.'

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Due to the high rate and 'forced strengthening of the ruble,' losses to the federal budget have already exceeded 16 trillion rubles, Deripaska indicated, citing experts.

"Summer vacations — in the gardens, like in the good old days," he ironically remarked.

The businessman also reflected on the saying that Russia has no other allies besides its own army. According to him, the 'ancestors' who said this also did not forget that the country 'has no other breadwinners besides its own economy.'

"To be more specific, mainly — its private component, because in a crisis, the state sector is like milk from a goat. And the competitiveness of the private Russian economy, crushed by predatory banking rates, needs to be urgently restored. As do the plans for Russia's development, which need to be updated in light of the impending crisis," the businessman concluded.

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Deripaska has sharply criticized the high rates of the Central Bank and the overvaluation of the ruble before. In January, he called state bank loans 'predatory' and assessed the artificial strengthening of the ruble as 'absolutely insane.' On behalf of all 'business and reasonable people of the country,' the businessman expressed the opinion that since 2024, there has been a squandering of what Russia 'managed to mobilize in 2022-2023 with such hard and persistent labor.'

After the U.S. operation in Venezuela to capture and export President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, Deripaska predicted problems for the Russian economy if it does not undergo structural changes, and if Russian oil is sold for no more than $50 per barrel.

In March, at a meeting on the situation in the global oil and gas market, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia had repeatedly warned about the rise in oil prices in the event of attempts to destabilize the Middle East. At the same time, he noted the temporary nature of the current high energy prices.