Russia will face new challenges in filling the budget if the US gains control over Venezuelan oil production, said billionaire Oleg Deripaska, founder of the aluminum company Rusal.
Thus, he reacted to Washington's military operation in Caracas, during which the president of the republic, Nicolas Maduro, was captured. "If our American 'partners' get to the oil fields of Venezuela (and they have already reached the fields of Guyana), more than half of the world's oil reserves will be under their control," the businessman wrote, as quoted by The Moscow Times.
According to Deripaska, the US plans to "keep an eye on" ensuring that the price of Russian oil "does not rise above $50 per barrel," and such a scenario threatens the current economic model of the Russian Federation. "This means that our sacred state capitalism will find it difficult to keep everything as it is: not to cut costs, not to get rid of non-core activities, to continue engaging in grand projects without the necessary competencies and without the participation of private business," the billionaire noted. Deripaska added that it will also become difficult for the Russian authorities to "pressure private business," which "starting this year becomes the main taxpayer in the federal budget."
In November, the average export price of Russian oil was about $45 per barrel, while in December it fell to $34. Against this backdrop, the Central Bank warned of a reduction in budget expenditures. The regulator also allowed for a revision of the base oil price in the budget rule for the coming years. In 2025, it was set at $60 per barrel, and for this year, the value is set at $59. It is expected that then the base price will decrease by one dollar per year — to $55 in 2030.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development's forecast, the average price of Brent oil in 2026–2028 will be $70-72 per barrel, and the discount of Russian Urals will gradually decrease from $12 per barrel in 2025 to $7 by 2028 "due to optimization of logistics and further reorientation of export flows." The long-term budget forecast includes a price of Urals at $69 starting in 2030.
At the same time, the December short-term assessment by the US Department of Energy suggests that the price of Brent will drop to $55 per barrel in the first quarter and will remain at this level throughout 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts an average price of $56/barrel this year, ING — $57, Citi — $62, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies — $65. Considering the current discounts, this means that the price of Russian oil will be at best just over $50.
Former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergey Aleksashenko noted that no one knows how the Ministry of Finance will compensate for the decline in oil and gas revenues if the drop in prices for Russian oil turns out to be sustainable.
A negative scenario could materialize as early as the first quarter of 2026, warned economist Kirill Rodionov. According to him, avoiding a fall in oil and gas revenues "can only be achieved by reducing the Urals discount to Brent, as well as increasing production," but this requires an exit from international isolation.
The long-term budget forecast approved by the government in December anticipates a decline in oil and gas revenues by more than half by 2042 — from the current 4% to 1.9% of GDP, the lowest level since the early 2000s.
