This dynamic is related to a decrease in purchasing power and a shift in people's focus towards longer use of devices.
This was stated by IT expert, chief analyst of Mobile Research Group Eldar Murtazin. However, according to him, this is not the limit, as "the market is falling and will continue to fall" and the situation is unlikely to change significantly by 2026.
"The fat years of endless growth are over" — consumers no longer buy technology chaotically, as they did during the crises of 2008, 2014, and the pandemic, but prefer to keep their money in deposits and gradually update their devices. The head of Merlion believes that the market has reached saturation and that growth should not be expected in 2026, unless considering specific segments — for example, phone accessories or smart speakers.
"The assessment is correct if we are talking in monetary terms. In units, it is about a 20% decline in the market. The market is falling and will continue to fall. Next year, the decline will be approximately the same. <…> We need to understand a very simple thing: the electronics market reflects the overall market, that is, the general macroeconomics not only in Russia but also in the world," Murtazin stated to RTVI.
He clarified that currently, "all markets are falling without exception".
"Some are drawing numbers for themselves, some are not. The Russian market is sharply declining because it was inflated in previous years. There are other objective reasons, but overall, as I said, next year the decline will be 20% in units and 15% in money," Murtazin said.
He explained that this dynamic is related to a decrease in purchasing power and a shift in people's focus towards longer use of devices: "This applies to everything — laptops, smartphones, tablets, and so on."
"Essentially, we are moving to a different consumption model. But the primary reason is saving money, which leads to the disappearance of sales in the budget segment. When it comes to smartphones, this is up to 10,000 rubles. Sales in the premium segment are also disappearing. This depends on the product, but for smartphones, it is above 70,000 rubles," the expert explained.
RBC also cites data from analysts at ICMR, according to which laptop sales in monetary terms fell by 17.5% in the first eight months of 2025, smartphones by 18%, and televisions by almost 9%. In major household appliances, the decline was about 5–6% in key categories and 4.5% overall for the category.
According to Murtazin, it is unlikely that the market decline will stop even in 2027.
