On June 7, the political fate of the Armenian Prime Minister will be decided.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan recently signed in Yerevan the Charter of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries, a Memorandum of Cooperation in the field of extraction, processing, and supply of rare earth metals and critical minerals, and a framework agreement on cooperation for the TRIPP project (also known as the "Trump Route"), which envisions the creation of a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
Armenia and the U.S. signed a 99-year agreement on TRIPP in January of this year in Washington. In the first 49-year phase of the project, Armenia's share will be 26%, which will increase to 49% over the next 50 years. The company managing the TRIPP project will have the ability to charge fees for access to the highway, conduct business using it, and will also have the opportunity to engage in real estate development along the route.
At that time, the State Department noted that the agreement is a continuation of the "fulfillment of commitments" undertaken by Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025, when an agreement to cease the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh was initialed at the White House in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump. Armenia was represented there by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, while Azerbaijan was represented by President Ilham Aliyev. The signed framework "Declaration on Peaceful Relations" included a clause committing to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan via the "Trump Road."
At the same time, the TRIPP project is merely a continuation of the process that began under the previous U.S. President Joe Biden, said Ara Sandjyan, director of the Armenian Research Center at the University of Michigan in Dearborn, to RTVI. He reminded that in the final days of the previous administration, a Charter of Strategic Partnership between the U.S. and Armenia was signed. However, one of the signed documents opens a new direction in the relations between Washington and Yerevan. It concerns rare earth minerals — according to Sandjyan, this issue is of paramount importance for the Trump administration.
Doctor of Political Science from Sorbonne, Aik Martirosyan clarified to RTVI that the minerals available to Armenia could help the U.S. diversify its sources in the race for resources with China. It is also noteworthy that a few days ago, experts from the American company Sargent and Lundy visited Armenia to conduct a technical and economic evaluation of replacing the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant with "advanced American technologies of small modular reactors."
The TRIPP project was "sold" to Trump as beneficial for America, but it represents only a temporary interest for the U.S., continued Martirosyan. According to him, TRIPP is, in fact, a project of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Moreover, it threatens Armenia with a loss of its statehood.
"Armenia has less than 30% in the project. And America can sell its shares to whoever it wants and whenever it wants. As we know, the Trump administration usually thinks and acts based on short-term interests. And here, the question is about Armenia losing control over its south, which completely deprives Armenia of the foundations of its statehood. The Armenian authorities are pursuing a distinctly pro-Azerbaijani, pro-Turkish line," said the interlocutor of RTVI.
At the same time, it is beneficial for Pashinyan to present the TRIPP project to the domestic audience as American in order to gain more support in the upcoming parliamentary elections on June 7, the expert added. The visit of Rubio may also be linked to this, along with possible support from the White House for Pashinyan. Despite Mirzoyan publicly denying any connection between the two events, Martirosyan reminded that representatives of the American administration often visit different countries ahead of elections. For example, this happened in April when U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest.
"We observed the same in Hungary, where the Washington administration tried to support Viktor Orban in this way, but it did not work out. And in Armenia, there is a very large mass that wants the country to move towards the West. And in this way, its consolidation can be achieved," Martirosyan explained.
Sandjyan believes that Yerevan will make every effort to ensure that the agreements signed on Tuesday do not negatively impact Armenia's relations with Russia and Iran and will try to minimize critical remarks from Moscow. At the same time, according to Martirosyan, the public disagreements between the two capitals are staged.
"Pashinyan, along with Moscow, is playing an anti-Russian game to relieve Russia of all obligations regarding its so-called ally Armenia, while at the same time avoiding confrontation with the West and seeking Western approval for everything that Russia agrees upon with Turkey and Azerbaijan," he said.
This is evidenced, for example, by the fact that Yerevan is not withdrawing from either the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which participation has only been frozen, and the term of the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia has been extended until 2044.
"I think everything is coordinated, and there will be another public escalation; everything is heading in that direction. But after the elections, as soon as Pashinyan is re-elected, in my and not only my opinion, relations will return to normal. This means that the relations between Pashinyan and Putin, Yerevan and the Kremlin will again be completely within the framework of cooperation," added Martirosyan.
