The Republican Party of the United States risks losing control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections this fall, resulting in an escalation of political and social conflicts in the country up to the presidential elections in 2028.
This was stated in a podcast by The New York Times by the founder of the largest American hedge fund Bridgewater, billionaire Ray Dalio.
The businessman admitted that he fears the emergence of irreconcilable disagreements that could threaten the maintenance of law and order. “I am concerned, but I do not predict widespread violence. Violence can be extensive. In the United States, there are more guns than people,” Dalio added.
The upheavals for the US will be related to the budget deficit, the growing gap in wealth levels, and political disagreements, the investor expects. In his opinion, the emergence of chaos will also be facilitated by a new geopolitical system and disruptions caused by artificial intelligence.
“In five years, huge changes will occur, all these forces will converge. And on the other side of this world, it will become almost unrecognizable. It will be completely different; it will be a period of great change and great upheaval,” Dalio warned.
Dalio added that a possible financial crisis in the US will severely limit spending opportunities – there will be no funds left for military or social needs. According to him, the imbalance between supply and demand will push interest rates up, which will hit borrowing and markets, while central banks will start printing money in response, creating a stagflationary environment.
At the same time, the investor emphasized that it is not possible to reduce everything to the question of whether “the US will win or lose” in the upcoming economic and political outlook. “For a country to be healthy, any country needs to do just three things, and history confirms this,” Dalio stated.
Firstly, to raise children well, developing their abilities and civility. Secondly, to create an environment where order prevails, productivity is high, and people can get along with each other. Thirdly, to avoid getting involved in wars – neither civil nor international, he concluded.
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