As reported by Politico, there is growing concern in the European Union: in the next one to two years, Russia may attempt to test NATO's strength.
According to three EU politicians, there are concerns in the European Union that Russia may attempt to test NATO's strength in the next two years – while Donald Trump is president of the United States and the EU has not yet strengthened its military capabilities.
"Something could happen very soon – Russia has a window of opportunity. The U.S. is leaving Europe, transatlantic relations are in ruins, and the EU is not yet fully prepared to take responsibility on its own," said Mika Aaltola, a Finnish MP from the center-right party and a member of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee.
The publication writes that defense officials and political figures do not rule out that Putin may initiate a ground operation in a NATO member country. However, they consider this unlikely, as Russia is exhausted from the war in Ukraine.
According to Aaltola, Europeans are more likely to believe that the Russian leader will undertake something more targeted or carry out an invasion aimed at creating ambiguity to sow discord within NATO regarding whether this action meets the threshold necessary to trigger Article 5 on mutual defense or not.
Article 5 states that allies must consider an armed attack against one of them "as an armed attack against all." At the same time, Trump has repeatedly referred to NATO as a "paper tiger." He is set to leave office in January 2029.
The publication emphasizes that although European defense spending has sharply increased after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the full effect on the ground will only be felt in a few years. According to the "Defense Readiness Roadmap," the bloc aims to be ready for "reliable deterrence of its adversaries and response to any aggression" by 2030.
At the same time, Aaltola believes that those who downplay the threat risk misleading Europe regarding security.
"This is actually the worst thing that can be created in democratic countries," he said.
