Latvia Named ‘Champion of Decline’ - Population Forecast for Europe 0 23

In Europe, birth rates are declining and the population is aging. The latest forecasts from Eurostat indicate that the EU population will decrease by 11.7% from 2025 to 2100. The number of residents will drop from 452 to 399 million, which means a loss of 53 million people by the beginning of the next century. These calculations take possible migration into account.

However, the projected changes in population across Europe vary significantly. In some countries, the population will be larger in 2100 than in 2025, while in many others a decrease is expected.

Which countries will face the sharpest decline in population? Which states will experience growth? What accounts for such differences between countries? Why does the population increase in some countries while it decreases in others?

Among 30 European countries, 12 are expected to see population growth, while 18 are projected to experience a decline by 2100.

The most significant losses, exceeding 30%, are forecasted in Latvia (33.9%), Lithuania (33.4%), Poland (31.6%), and Greece (30.1%). This means that by 2100, these countries could lose more than three out of ten residents.

A population decline of more than 20% is also expected in Bulgaria (28%), Croatia (27%), Slovakia (26.7%), Romania (24.3%), Italy (24%), and Hungary (22.5%). This is comparable to losing about one in four residents and is a very serious indicator.

A reduction in the range of 10 to 20% is forecasted for Portugal (19.3%), Estonia (19.1%), the Czech Republic (11.5%), Finland (10.7%), Slovenia (10.6%), and Germany (10.6%).

In contrast, three European countries are expected to see population growth of more than 25%, although their populations are relatively small: Luxembourg (36.4%), Iceland (27.1%), and Malta (26%).

Switzerland (16.9%), Ireland (14.6%), Norway (11.8%), and Sweden (10%) are also projected to experience an increase in population of more than 10%.

“Primarily Due to Past and Projected Migration Flows”

“These differences are mainly due to past and expected future migration, as well as differences in the age structure of the population,” said Tomas Sobotka, Deputy Director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, to Euronews Health.

“Countries that have experienced low birth rates and outmigration in recent decades have an older age structure and fewer people of young and reproductive age.”

Sobotka noted that differences in demographic dynamics are also influenced by varying birth rate forecasts, but “to a lesser extent.” In Southern European countries, birth rates are already lower than in other parts of the continent, and it is expected that they will remain low.

Dr. Anne Goujon from the Vienna Institute of Demography also emphasized that the primary reason for these differences is the balance between natural increase (decrease) and net migration.

“Although birth rates are low in all EU countries, states with a steady influx of migrants may continue to grow even after 2050, despite low birth rates (for example, Luxembourg and Malta), while countries with low birth rates and weak immigration or a negative migration balance tend to decline (for example, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland),” she said in a comment to Euronews Health.

Among the four largest economies in the EU by size and population, only Spain is expected to see population growth by 2100, albeit a small one - by 1.3%.

In contrast, the population of France is expected to decrease slightly - by 2.5%. A more significant reduction is forecasted for Germany (10.6%) and especially Italy (24%).

“Over the past three decades, Spain has experienced a strong influx of migrants, which has ensured rapid population growth despite very low birth rates in the country,” Sobotka noted.

He emphasized that in France, the birth rate is higher than in most other EU countries, and it is this slightly higher birth rate, younger age structure, and moderate immigration that are expected to keep the population of France roughly at its current level.

Shifts in Rankings: Spain to Overtake Italy in Population

The projected trends will also change the balance of power among the most populous countries in Europe from 2025 to 2100.

The most notable change is that Spain is expected to surpass Italy and become the third most populous country. During this period, Italy's population is projected to decrease by about 15 million people, while Spain's will increase by approximately half a million.

Among the 30 countries, Switzerland (from 15th to 10th place), Ireland (from 21st to 17th), and Norway (from 19th to 16th) will rise the most in the rankings. In contrast, Bulgaria (from 16th to 20th), Portugal (from 10th to 13th), and Greece (from 12th to 15th) will show the most significant decline in positions.

Uneven Demographic Trends Across Europe

The projected changes in population in Europe from 2025 to 2100 are nonlinear. In some countries, the population will initially grow and then begin to decline. As a result, the final level may be either below or above the 2025 figure.

If we take the population in 2025 as 100, demographic trends across countries diverge significantly and demonstrate different trajectories of growth and decline. Thus, in the EU, the population is expected to fall below the current level as early as 2040. In Spain, however, the population will initially increase by about 10% by 2055 and then decline, being only 1% higher than the 2025 level by 2100.

However, in some countries, a decline is forecasted throughout the entire period under consideration. In Italy, the decrease will be more pronounced, while in Germany, it will be more gradual.

By 2100, One in Three Europeans Will Be Over 65

Looking at changes in the age structure, the EU population will be significantly older by 2100. The diagram above clearly illustrates this gradual but profound demographic shift.

The share of people aged 85 and older will more than triple - from 3.2% in 2025 to 10.8% in 2100. This means that more than one in ten Europeans will belong to this age group.

The number of people aged 66 to 84 will also increase - their share will rise from 17.6% to 21.8%. In total, people over 65 will make up nearly a third of the population of Europe by 2100, compared to about one-fifth today.

At the same time, the share of all younger age groups in the total population will decrease. The working-age population from 31 to 65 years - the backbone of European economies - will shrink from 47.8% to 40.5%.