Latvian Military Intelligence Reports on the Possibility of a Peace Agreement Between Russia and Ukraine in the Near Future

In the short term, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely, and a temporary ceasefire or truce is likely to be used by Russia to prepare its forces for further aggression, according to the annual report of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MILS) on threat assessment and activities for 2025.

The pace of Russia's advance to date is insufficient to achieve the Kremlin's initial goals - the capitulation of Ukraine in the near term, concludes the service.

Most likely, this year Russia will primarily continue to seek full occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which would have both political and military significance. At the same time, the offensive operations of Russian troops in other areas of Ukraine indicate that Moscow will strive to gain and maintain control over as much territory as possible to weaken Ukraine militarily, politically, and economically, according to military intelligence.

According to the Military Intelligence Service of Latvia (MILS), it is quite likely that the Kremlin is dragging out peace negotiations, believing that it can continue military operations longer than Ukraine. The current balance of power does not allow either side to achieve rapid progress and force the other to make significant concessions.

Although the Russian armed forces continue to conduct mechanized attacks, the regularity and, most likely, the doctrinal necessity of their use has significantly decreased, notes MILS.

According to the Latvian service, a drawback of Russian tactics is the limited ability to achieve quick territorial gains, as the penetration and accumulation of infantry behind enemy lines occurs slowly. The use of such tactics makes the battlefield less linear: in the frontline zone, control over the terrain exists in the form of small "islands" controlled by both sides, where one side or the other tries to gain the upper hand over the opponent by gradually capturing positions under their control.

Thus, instead of a clearly defined front line, a large "gray zone" often emerges, where the warring parties struggle for control over positions. The tactic of infantry penetration does not mitigate heavy losses in manpower, but Russia can afford this as it has so far managed to recruit a sufficient number of new soldiers, notes MILS.

Latvian intelligence suggests that Russia has reached the limit of voluntary conscription and therefore will not be able to significantly increase its troop numbers in Ukraine in the future without declaring full or partial forced mobilization.

MILS's conclusions are similar to the analysis of another Latvian special service - the Satversme Protection Bureau, which stated that the likelihood of changes at the strategic level on the front in Ukraine in the next six months is very low.