A minority government formed by the United List (AS), National Alliance (NA), and Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) with the support of the 'Latvia First' party (LPV) would be a good solution from the perspective of the 'New Unity' party (JV), but not for the other involved parties, said political scientist Janis Ikstens.
Ikstens noted that the candidate for the position of Prime Minister, Andris Kulbergs (AS), has been given an opportunity, and the outlines of a potential government are now more or less clear. One option is a coalition between AS, NA, ZZS, and JV. The second option is a minority government or a combination where NA is replaced by 'Progressives'.
"It is currently difficult to judge whether Kulbergs will be able to form a government. This depends on several factors, including how he and AS as a whole will negotiate and how the coalition formation will proceed," said Ikstens, explaining that in one scenario, the coalition could be formed "very quietly," and in ten days it could turn out that "nothing worked out," for example, due to disagreements over positions.
In another scenario, the principles of government operation may be clearly defined. As Ikstens explained, some of these have already been mentioned by both President Edgars Rinkēvičs and Kulbergs — security, elections, and budget.
"This is a good start. If, for example, during the negotiations AS successfully navigates the traps set by JV regarding human rights, which is obviously a hint at the Istanbul Convention, then coalition formation is quite possible," said Ikstens, adding that government formation is possible if priorities are clearly defined and the parties can agree on the distribution of ministerial portfolios.
Another subject of discussion, Ikstens mentioned, is whether to maintain 15 ministerial portfolios or return to 14 by eliminating the Ministry of Climate and Energy (KEM). The political scientist noted that, in his opinion, eliminating KEM now would be unreasonable, as there is little time, and any reorganization would require significant resources.
"It is very possible that one simply needs to grit their teeth and work until the elections as is, and then think about whether reorganization is needed," said Ikstens, adding that the elimination of one minister would still provide some savings.
In response to a question about whether there is a scenario where AS, NA, and ZZS would decide to put a minority government to a vote, considering that LPV promised to support such a structure, Ikstens pointed out that "this would not be a far-sighted step."
The political scientist explained that very serious coordination between the government, the Saeima, and parliamentary factions is necessary for the functioning of minority governments. Furthermore, in Latvia, minority governments mainly existed before the country joined the European Union.
In such a scenario, JV would become a classic opposition party and would not participate in "putting out fires" created by the government. From JV's perspective, this is a very good solution, but from the perspective of the other competitors — not very advantageous, the expert admitted.
As previously reported, President Rinkēvičs decided to entrust the formation of a new government to AS leader Andris Kulbergs.
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