We see a prolonged polarization of society, driven by historical circumstances.
As soon as the votes were counted in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, it became clear that even after ten democratic parliamentary elections, this country is capable of political surprises. Robert Golob, the head of the "Freedom Movement" (GS, 28.6 percent), became the first prime minister in the country's history to successfully become the strongest political figure in elections for a second time. An extraordinary result, considering that in 2022 he was a political newcomer. In Slovenia, it is certainly not uncommon for voters to entrust the fate of the country to a political messiah, but until now, prime ministers of this kind have quickly disappeared from the political arena.
Golob's management style over the past four years, during which he left little room for maneuver for his two coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SD) and the Left Party, and appropriated their successes, is having an effect. The question of whether the election winner will be able to form a coalition again remains open. For the coalition to be renewed, his current partners (SD – 6.7 percent, Left – 5.6 percent) received too few votes. Given that he appropriated the successes of the previous legislative period and considering the future complex coalition negotiations, it is clear that the winner cannot take all. Whether Golob can attract moderately conservative parties (the party alliance led by the Christian Democratic Party (NSi), which received 9.3 percent, and the "Democrats," who received 6.7 percent), which would again have to include the SD, will be known in the coming days.
Alternatively, right-wing parties may join right-wing populist Janez Janša, who would then become prime minister for the fourth time as head of his Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS, 28 percent). In that case, it would be the moderate forces of the right wing that would have to prevent Slovenia from sliding into American realities. Janša himself has shifted significantly to the right. His last term in office was marked by mass attacks on peaceful demonstrators, the media, and civil society. He copied the script for weakening democracy from his colleague, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
The SDS is increasingly looking across the ocean, as deputies participated in Trump's inauguration, and during the election campaign, SDS representatives demanded the creation of a Slovenian version of the federal law enforcement agency under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, responsible for enforcing immigration and customs laws, ICE. Such a government would not be convenient in foreign policy, as Tanja Fajon, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs and former leader of the SD party (who is striving to retain her position), is considered one of the supporters and closest allies of German foreign policy.
Evidence that Janša does not shy away from dishonest international connections is the involvement of the Israeli intelligence company Black Cube in the election campaign, which dealt below-the-belt blows to the current government. It is quite possible that the exposure of such foreign interference cost him the decisive percentage of votes needed to win the election.
The election campaign was even dirtier than four years ago, when there could be no talk of an objective discussion. Broken and littered with dead animals, campaign posters marked a new dimension of dirty political struggle. At the same time, we see a prolonged polarization of society, driven by historical circumstances. The fact that someone's family stood with the fascists while another's stood with the partisans still plays an important role. There are also no powerful actors in the political center or widely recognized public institutions (think tanks for public opinion, courts, universities) that could mitigate this polarization. Golob's coalition only hesitantly tried to introduce political education programs aimed at achieving socio-political consensus.
Slovenia demonstrates that political events, even in small countries that can easily go unnoticed, can have a significant impact on other democratic countries. Three lessons can be drawn from Slovenia. First, someone who is "close to the people" can defeat right-wing populists in elections even in conservative regions and regardless of how their party appears in polls. Someone who communicates with the press in the local dialect, has actively worked in a volunteer fire brigade for four years, and during the election campaign, even if it hurts, writes their name with a capital letter and the party name with a lowercase letter, has a good chance of winning.
Second, if a broad party alliance is necessary to defeat the right, mutual respect between coalition partners and mutual recognition of successes are crucial. Despite pessimistic forecasts and disputes, the three coalition partners managed to orderly complete the legislative term. The fear of Janša's return in the event of new elections proved to be a more effective unifying factor than in the case of the German "traffic light coalition." In the end, Golob's arrogant style in government cost his coalition partners so many votes that it is now becoming a problem for him.
Third, the effective functioning of the government is all the more important as such coalitions face the task of restoring the democratic system destroyed by the previous right-wing populist government (in Slovenia, this is Janša's government). It is clear that all processes must be democratic. The task is not simple because, on the one hand, there is no possibility of simply firing undesirable employees from ministries or broadcasting councils while neglecting established procedures, and on the other hand, voters expect the new, progressive government to fix everything immediately.
Remaining visible while being the junior partner in a coalition is not easy. Social democrats in any country in the world can confirm this.
In the case of Slovenia, important, albeit painful lessons can be drawn for social democrats. That remaining visible while being the junior partner in a coalition is not easy can be confirmed by social democrats in any country in the world, including Germany. In Slovenia, it became clear how important the choice of the appropriate ministries is in this situation. By taking positions in the ministries of foreign affairs, economy, justice, and cohesion and regional development, the SD deprived itself from the very beginning of the opportunity to fulfill its key electoral promises in the fields of labor, pensions, healthcare, and housing.
The SD party could also attract attention if it were perceived as an authoritative force alongside the politically inexperienced Prime Minister Golob and his equally inexperienced government team. Since this was difficult, without ridiculing Golob and, in the worst-case scenario, risking Janša's victory in early elections, the SD decided to adhere to a policy of silent consent. Since most officials from the SD party headquarters received positions in ministries, party representatives quickly began to attract new members to avoid leaving party structures in the headquarters and at the local level without leadership. This strategy was successful until a scandal erupted in 2024 involving the SD Minister of Justice, causing such personnel depletion that its members are now forced to split their time between government and party work.
Regardless of how the formation of the Slovenian government proceeds, the SD party must learn lessons from past experiences for the next term. If it enters the government again as part of a coalition, Prime Minister Golob must make it clear from the very beginning that not allowing room for maneuver and not allowing smaller coalition partners to achieve success is not in his strategic interests, as in this precarious situation he may soon need partners again during new elections. If the SD goes into opposition, it will be an opportunity for personnel and program consolidation. Comrades with government experience could revive the still-existing local party structures, that is, "among the people," considering the local elections in November and the possible rapid collapse of the equally precarious coalition led by Janša.
