The armada of American military forces is awaiting instructions from Washington.
The U.S. and Iran are "quickly sliding toward military confrontation," and hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program are "rapidly fading." This was stated to Reuters by American and Iranian sources, as well as diplomats from Gulf countries and Europe.
According to agency interlocutors, the dynamics of negotiations have noticeably worsened in recent days amid a sharp increase in U.S. military presence in the Middle East and the persistence of fundamental disagreements on key issues – uranium enrichment, sanctions, and missile programs.
Reuters reports that Israel and several Gulf states consider a military scenario more likely than reaching an agreement. Israeli sources told the agency that the gap between Washington and Tehran's positions "is insurmountable," and the likelihood of military escalation in the near future is high.
One of the most telling episodes, which Reuters cites with reference to a source familiar with the contacts, is that during negotiations in Geneva, Omani mediators handed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi an envelope containing American proposals regarding missile issues. According to the agency's interlocutor, Araghchi refused to even open the envelope.
Sources tell Reuters that the diplomatic "window" is narrowing amid the strengthening of the military component: the U.S. is conducting a large-scale deployment of forces in the region, while the negotiation process is bogged down in the "red lines" of both sides.
At the same time, the Trump administration has not yet announced a final decision to strike, according to the agency.
Concentration of American Forces in the Region
The aircraft carrier strike group Abraham Lincoln has long been in the area of responsibility of CENTCOM (Arabian Sea). The composition of the air wing CVW-9: F-35C, F/A-18E/F, EA-18G, E-2D, CMV-22B, MH-60R/S. The escort includes the destroyers Frank E. Petersen Jr., Michael Murphy, Spruance (and a nuclear multipurpose submarine for escort).
The aircraft carrier strike group Gerald R. Ford has already entered the Mediterranean Sea (passed Gibraltar on February 20) and is heading to the eastern Mediterranean. Apparently, its main task will be to support Israel during combat operations against Iran. An accompanying destroyer, Mahan, is following with the aircraft carrier. Additionally, several other destroyers are included in the group.
According to Reuters, the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford will need about another week to reach the eastern part of the Mediterranean.
According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, there has been an unusually large transfer of forces in recent days: additional F-22 aircraft have arrived in the region (with more expected in the coming days), several squadrons of F-35, F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16, etc. E-3 Sentry AWACS, E-11 BACN (airborne communication relay), RC-135 Rivet Joint (electronic reconnaissance), P-8 Poseidon (maritime reconnaissance) aircraft are being transferred to the region and Europe. Just last week, more than ten American refueling aircraft arrived in Europe.
At the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, the U.S. has already deployed about three times more aircraft than usual. Over the past week, at least 68 American transport aircraft have landed at the base.
At the same time, air defense systems are being strengthened through the transfer of Patriot and THAAD.
Reuters reports that the U.S. administration considered sending another aircraft carrier – George H.W. Bush, but it was undergoing certification and would take more than a month to reach the region.
Military experts are monitoring the movements of American strategic bombers (including B-2), noting that their approach to the region (for example, their appearance at the airbase on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean) will be an indicator of the imminent start of hostilities against Iran.
Possibility of a "Limited" Strike
Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump answered affirmatively to reporters' questions about whether he is considering the possibility of a limited strike against Iran to pressure Tehran. "I think I can say that I am considering that possibility," the agency Reuters quotes the president as saying.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering the possibility of launching an initial limited strike against Iran. According to sources familiar with the situation, a preliminary strike, if sanctioned, could be carried out in the coming days, targeting several military or government facilities. If this does not yield results, a large-scale military operation against Tehran will be initiated.
However, it is extremely unlikely that in response to any military actions by the U.S., the Iranians would not respond with large-scale strikes against American bases in the Middle East and against Israel, after which a "limited" war would become impossible.
Axios: Pentagon presented Trump with scenarios regarding Iran – including the elimination of Khamenei
The Axios portal published material stating that a wide range of options for action regarding Iran is being discussed in the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump – from attempts to conclude a new nuclear agreement to military scenarios.
According to the authors of the publication, Barak Ravid and Mark Caputo, the White House is prepared to consider an option where Tehran may be allowed only "symbolic" uranium enrichment, provided it excludes the path to creating nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Axios writes, citing high-ranking sources, the Pentagon presented Trump with several military options, including a scenario involving the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba, and other representatives of the leadership.
One source confirmed: such a plan was presented to Trump several weeks ago, but no decision has been made.
