The Telegraph Considers the Worst-Case Scenario for Russia 0 9

Putin's only remaining lever is to drive a wedge between Trump and Zelensky, but today the U.S. president is noticeably less susceptible to Kremlin manipulation than he was a few weeks ago.

For the first time in many years, there are real grounds for cautious optimism, and 2026 could bring Ukraine a fair and lasting peace. This is noted by The Telegraph's columnist Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

The analyst points out that Donald Trump's statements that a peace agreement on Ukraine is 95 percent ready have clearly caused panic in Moscow, which manifested in the usual Kremlin manner: crude disinformation and implausible narratives. An example of this was the claim that one of Putin's many palaces was attacked by 91 drones this week.

"The CIA informed the U.S. president that this was almost certainly a false flag operation. This is a clumsy and unambiguous attempt to disrupt the peace process that is quickly slipping out of the Kremlin's control. Even more damaging for Putin is that his own population is starting to doubt this version of events. When propaganda collapses domestically, regimes soon follow," notes Bretton-Gordon.

At the same time, Putin understands that his only remaining lever is to drive a wedge between Trump and Zelensky. However, today Trump is noticeably less susceptible to Kremlin manipulation than he was a few weeks ago. This leads the White House toward a peace that, while not ideal for Ukraine, is much worse for Moscow.

As the columnist points out, it is extremely important that U.S. and NATO security guarantees, designed for 15 years, essentially represent NATO protection. Even more alarming for the Kremlin is Trump’s open discussion of the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian territory:

"This is the worst-case scenario for Putin. No manipulation, even at the peak of the Kremlin's propaganda machine, could disguise such an outcome as anything other than defeat." In the context of a frozen front line, it is Trump, not Putin, who will negotiate with Kyiv for access to rare earth minerals in Donbas. Adding to this is the growing likelihood of reparations, as well as the potential seizure of frozen Russian assets worth $200 billion, making the Russian economy, already in free fall, appear increasingly unstable, the analyst notes.

Two more factors will exert strong pressure in favor of Washington. First, Russia now understands that its army cannot withstand NATO, even without U.S. involvement. Second, with oil prices falling below $60 per barrel, the financial fuel supporting the Russian military machine is quickly evaporating. Without revenue, the weapons go silent.

"The CIA has effectively deprived the president of the ability to see the Kremlin's deception. Now Trump has Putin firmly by the throat," emphasizes Bretton-Gordon.

Concerns about nuclear escalation remain, however, the usual nuclear threats from the Kremlin have virtually disappeared in recent weeks, and this is no coincidence - Moscow understands that saber-rattling no longer intimidates European leaders.