Politico: The war may end in 2026 on terms extremely unfavorable to Kyiv 0 9

Russia's war against Ukraine is likely to end next year – and on terms that are extremely unfavorable for Kyiv. This opinion is expressed by Politico columnist Jamie Dettmer.

In his view, this grim forecast is largely due to the EU's failure to agree on the use of 210 billion euros in frozen assets – to ensure Ukraine's solvency and the ability to finance military actions.

"The failure of the proposal for a 'reparations loan', which envisaged the use of Russian assets, mostly frozen in a clearing bank in Belgium, deprives Ukraine of guaranteed funding for the next two years," he explains.

Of course, the EU will still provide Ukraine with a significant funding package of 90 billion euros backed by the EU budget. However, while this will prevent a funding shortfall at the beginning of next year, the package is designed for two years, and it will not be enough for Ukraine to continue the fight, the columnist notes.

Nevertheless, many European leaders were quite optimistic after the financing agreement was reached last week. It is also suggested that a subsequent loan, indirectly related to Russian assets, may be added. However, this may be premature boasting, as it all depends on what agreement is reached to end the war.

At the same time, obtaining another loan will not be such an easy task. Three countries – Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic – have already opted out of the joint borrowing program last week. It is not hard to imagine that others may join them. Furthermore, Trump will still be in the White House – so there is no point in seeking additional funds in Washington.

And while Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever called the agreement "a victory for Ukraine, a victory for financial stability... and a victory for the EU," Russian leader Vladimir Putin will see it differently, Dettmer emphasizes:

"After Friday's fiasco, which highlighted the rift among European leaders, Putin... will only confirm that time is on his side. If he waits a little longer, the 28-point plan developed by his aides in conjunction with Trump's special envoy Steve Whitcoff may be revived, leaving Ukraine and Europe bewildered – the perfect outcome for the Kremlin."