Ukraine is not ready to capitulate yet, but it "looks weak enough for the Russians to think they can make demands," analysts note.
The situation on the battlefield is not in Ukraine's favor, as Russian troops advance on several fronts, giving Russian leader Vladimir Putin grounds to take a hardline stance in negotiations and refuse any concessions on a peace plan, writes The New York Times.
"The Russians really do have an advantage," said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finnish organization Black Bird Group. Ukraine is not ready to capitulate yet, he said, but it "looks weak enough for the Russians to think they can make demands."
As confirmed by battle maps, analysts, and soldiers, in recent weeks, Russian troops have achieved successes on several fronts. They are close to capturing Pokrovsk and have nearly surrounded the neighboring city of Myrnohrad. They are advancing more quickly in the southern part of Zaporizhia. They are approaching Kupiansk and making gains around Siversk.
"The future looks very, very grim for Ukraine," Kastehelmi stated. "I don’t see a clear way out of this situation."
The Situation Began to Deteriorate
As the publication notes, since autumn, the situation has begun to shift in favor of Russia.
"Since September, the situation on our side has started to deteriorate a bit," said Igor, a Ukrainian drone operator. "The defense line has just started to collapse from exhaustion."
Russian troops are sending in "Molniya" drones and waves of mini kamikaze drones equipped with explosives, he said, adding that Ukraine has nothing similar in mass production.
Not Just Pokrovsk in the Crosshairs At the same time, Russian troops have targeted other important cities in the Donetsk region, including Kostiantynivka and Lyman. Oleg Voitsekhovsky, a Ukrainian captain whose unit is near Lyman, stated that Russian forces are attacking "constantly" and "from all directions."
Drone strikes and shelling never cease, he said:
"In the last two months, there has been a noticeable increase in the intensity of hostilities."
Pokrovsk Remains the Epicenter of the Confrontation
As Maxim Bakulin, a serviceman of the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard, explained, a year ago the city was "alive," but now on the once-bustling streets of Pokrovsk, "the bodies of civilians and military are mixed together, and there is no way to evacuate them."
At the same time, as Ukraine has concentrated many resources on this battle, Russian troops have seen an opportunity to attack elsewhere along the front line, in the southeast of Zaporizhia.
Ukraine has sent some reserves to this area, which has helped slow the advance, "but the pace there is still quite alarming," Kastehelmi stated.
As the battle for Pokrovsk enters its final stage, concerns are growing for the neighboring city of Myrnohrad. Russia is storming Ukrainian positions there daily, said platoon commander Oleg, as drones have turned the roads into deadly traps:
"They don’t give us peace, neither day nor night… If we have three people, they have 30. The amount of their manpower is just unreal."
Prospects on the Front
The onset of winter may slow the pace of the Russian advance across a wide front, as well as the movements of Ukrainian troops. The predominance of drones further slows the course of events, forcing a retreat from mass infantry attacks. However, Russia seemingly has an inexhaustible supply of soldiers and is willing to incur heavy losses, waging a war that is compared to a meat grinder, writes NYT.
"Russia has committed to waging a war of attrition, and now it is trying to slowly and militarily break Ukraine," Kastehelmi said.
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Earlier, Vladimir Nazarenko, deputy commander of the 4th Battalion "Freedom Force" of the 4th Brigade "Rubezh" of the National Guard, stated that the Russians are not giving up attempts to advance in the Pokrovsk direction. He emphasized that the situation remains very difficult.
Andrei, the head of recruitment for the 10th Corps, with the call sign "Strateg," shared that Ukrainian fighters are holding Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. He refuted Russian claims that the city has been captured.
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