Times: the probability of humanity's extinction due to AI is at least 95%.
The probability of humanity's extinction due to the development of artificial intelligence (AI) may be at least 95 percent. This risk assessment was made by the head of the non-profit organization Machine Intelligence Research Institute, former engineer at Google and Microsoft, Nate Soares, as quoted by The Times.
"You take a huge amount of computational power and throw it at a truly gigantic amount of data in such a way that it somehow changes the computers. No one knows what is happening inside these things," the expert noted.
Soares' organization is focused on developing safe AI and identifying potential dangers of technological progress. According to him, the current situation can be compared to a car speeding towards a cliff. "I’m not saying we can’t stop the car, but we are just barreling towards the edge," he asserts.
The article states that artificial intelligence is currently at the beginning of its development, but according to various experts, within 12 months, AI could advance to the point where it can think on par with humans. Following that, it could be succeeded by artificial superintelligence capable of solving problems beyond human capability. For example, it could help create a cure for cancer or organize intergalactic routes. Ultimately, there is a risk that at some point, AI will perceive humanity as an obstacle.
However, the publication notes that Soares presents an extremely negative scenario. Another expert, executive director of the PauseAI movement, Holly Elmore, believes that the risk of humanity's extinction due to AI is only 15-20 percent. Tesla CEO Elon Musk agrees with a probability of 20 percent, while Google CEO Sundar Pichai assesses the risks at 10 percent.
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