Evika Silina resigned, but… continues to perform her duties. The Minister of Agriculture is detained right in his office. All attention is focused on the president.
Three scandals in one morning
Veterans of Latvian politics cannot recall a morning like Thursday, May 14. In fact, within an hour and a half, three loud events occurred:
-
first, the Minister of Agriculture Armands Krauze was taken from his office for questioning at the prosecutor's office,
-
then the director of the State Chancellery Raivis Kronbergs was also brought in for questioning,
-
meanwhile, equally dramatic events unfolded in the office of Prime Minister Evika Silina.
But let’s go in order. The government, which was already in a practically incapacitated state, was torpedoed by Evika Silina herself: as we reported, last Sunday, without warning her coalition partners, she dismissed the Minister of Defense Andris Spruds ("Progressives").
Moreover, the Prime Minister, again without coordinating with the same "Progressives", nominated a candidate for the post of Minister of Defense — professional military Raivis Melnis, who, while being a serviceman, was not a member of any party.
These actions of the Prime Minister initiated the process of the government's final demise.
Loss of votes
Evika Silina's attempt to appease the "Progressives" was unsuccessful — on Wednesday, after nearly an hour of communication with the Prime Minister, the leader of the "Progressives" party Andris Shuvaev stated that the Prime Minister no longer had the votes of his party. This means the government lost its majority in the Saeima.
At the same time, Shuvaev made it clear that the deputies of this political force would support the initiative to express no confidence in the Prime Minister if the opposition brought such an initiative forward.
"Better a terrible end than an endless horror," — said Saeima deputy from the opposition United List Maris Kucinskis, calling on Evika Silina to resign quickly.
It didn’t take long for the continuation to come — soon representatives of the right opposition in the form of the United List and the National Alliance announced that they were gathering deputies' signatures for a statement of no confidence in the head of government. The right opposition promised to ensure that this issue would be considered at the next plenary session of the Saeima, that is, yesterday.
Morning is wiser than evening
Already practically after this, that is, on Wednesday evening, Evika Silina was supposed to resign herself. According to rumors, her party members were pushing her towards this step.
However, the Prime Minister refused to do so on Wednesday evening and even early Thursday morning. However, around 9 a.m., when it became clear that the opposition "was not joking" and was preparing to initiate the question of no confidence in the Prime Minister, Evika Silina contacted the Speaker of the Saeima and asked her to postpone the start of the plenary session — that is, to start it not at 9:00, but at 10:00, so that Silina could arrive at the Saeima and announce her resignation from the podium.
The Speaker of the Saeima Daiga Mierina fulfilled the Prime Minister's request and postponed the meeting, but… Silina "changed her mind" and did not come to the Saeima. Instead, she scheduled a press conference for 10:30, at which, branding the "Progressives" with shame, she announced her resignation.
What happens next?
The resigned government continues to operate until the Saeima approves a new government.
Theoretically, it could last until the elections to the Saeima if a new government cannot be formed before that. The thing is, the possible "core" of the new government consisting of the National Alliance, the "Greens and Farmers" and the United List will gather only 43 votes, while at least 51 are needed...
Yesterday, these three political forces conceptually agreed on forming a government. Apparently, they will first try to persuade "New Unity" to join the new ruling coalition. And if Silina's party does not agree? Since the National Alliance has already rejected cooperation with the "Progressives", there are three possible scenarios:
Option one — these three political forces try somehow to "split off" part of the deputies from "New Unity". This scenario cannot be ruled out, as it is obvious that in the new Saeima this party will have at least half as many mandates as it currently does, and deputies may switch to another political force.
Option two — this trio, realizing that it will not be able to split or persuade "New Unity", begins negotiations with the "Latvia First" party, which, together with independent deputies, has 11 votes. 43 plus 11 — a quite stable majority.
Option three — Silina's government continues to fulfill its duties until the elections.
The word to Rinkevics
At this stage, the key role will be played by President Edgars Rinkevics, as the Constitution grants the president the exclusive right to nominate a candidate for Prime Minister and entrust him with forming the government.
There is very little time until the elections, and the president will not delay in nominating a candidate. The mentioned trio believes that since "New Unity" has led the government twice in this parliament, they can no longer be entrusted with the duties of the Prime Minister.
However, this trio has not yet agreed on their single candidate. This means much will depend on the head of state. It cannot be ruled out that he will first entrust the formation of the government to Maris Kucinskis from the United List — he has already been Prime Minister and has experience working as a minister and head of the national security commission...
Consultations of the political forces with the president will begin today.
Everyone stay in their places!
As for the detention of the Minister of Agriculture, as the Prosecutor General Armīns Meisters assured yesterday, this is in no way connected with the political scandals and the resignation of the Prime Minister.
The head of the Ministry of Agriculture Armands Krauze (Union of Greens and Farmers) was detained and questioned as part of criminal proceedings initiated "in the case of wood processors". This concerns the state providing assistance to private companies in wood processing, as a result of which, it is likely, illegal assistance was provided, possibly leading to losses to the state amounting to 50 million euros.
As part of this investigation, as many as 10 people have come under suspicion — this includes Minister of Agriculture Armands Krauze (already dismissed from office by the Prime Minister), Director of the State Chancellery Raivis Kronbergs (held in custody on suspicion of obstructing the investigation, but is likely to be released), State Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture Girts Kruminsh, a civil servant from the Ministry of Agriculture, as well as a number of former and current officials of the state company "Latvijas valsts meži" and the wood processing company PATA.
Before resigning, Silina hurried to dismiss Krauze from the position of Minister of Agriculture — his duties will be performed, in the meantime, by Minister of Economics Viktors Valainis, who was officially nominated by the "Greens and Farmers" as a candidate for Prime Minister in the parliamentary elections on October 3.
