Latvian Intelligence Services Explained Whether Latvians Should Fear Russia's Nuclear Threats 0 8

Nuclear weapons play an increasingly important role in Russia's relations and connections with the outside world, the report states. Russia's targeted actions in recent years, especially after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, have contributed to the decline of the global arms control system, which Moscow uses to amplify nuclear threats.

In February 2026, the Russian-American treaty on the limitation of nuclear weapons "New Start" expired and was not extended. Russia suspended its participation in the treaty back in February 2023 but committed to adhering to its terms, except for information exchange and mutual inspections.

At the end of the same year, the Federation Council approved the withdrawal of ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and in November 2024, a new nuclear doctrine was adopted, significantly lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

"If the Kremlin is convinced that nuclear blackmail brings the desired results, then, likely in the near future, threatening actions in the nuclear sphere - rhetoric about preparing for nuclear tests, increasing the number of weapons or their deployment in new locations, etc. - will become more frequent and more targeted," the report states.

The Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (SVRB) also notes that in 2025, Russia continued testing the intercontinental ballistic missile "Sarmat," the nuclear-powered cruise missile "Burevestnik," and the nuclear torpedo "Poseidon" with varying degrees of success.

Once these weapon systems are adopted, they will pose a potential threat to Russia's adversaries, but if Moscow does not feel an existential threat, they are likely to be used in the same way as other nuclear weapons already in Russia's arsenal - for deterrence and intimidation.