The country's main intelligence agency has published a fresh report on the security situation in Latvia and beyond.
"The Rise of Military Threat in the Next Two to Three Years"
The Constitution Protection Bureau (CPB) is engaged in intelligence and counterintelligence, grants politicians access to state secrets, has informants both domestically and abroad, and maintains contacts with the world's largest intelligence agencies. In general, if anyone in Latvia understands what is happening in the country and the world, it is the CPB.
Counterintelligence officers share their understanding of the situation in an annual report, which is divided into secret and open parts. The preface to the report includes a concerning quote from CPB chief Egils Zvidris. "Last year, assessing the development of the security situation in our region, we predicted that under certain conditions, the military threat from Russia to NATO could significantly increase over a period of about five years. Recently, various experts have predicted an increase in military threats in the next two to three years. The situation has changed, the threat has increased; however, we are currently refraining from naming specific timelines, as this is influenced by the interaction of various changing factors. The threat from Russia to Western countries will remain high, so we need to work purposefully to reduce it. We must also be prepared for Russia to try to exert its influence on the upcoming Saeima elections in Latvia this fall," said CPB director Egils Zvidris.
It is worth noting that the CPB publishes the open part of the report at the beginning of each new year, analyzing the situation in the field of international security and the threats that exist.
After February 2022, the CPB has included an analysis of the war in Ukraine and Russia's actions in its report. The current report from Latvia's main intelligence agency is no exception in this regard.
No Change on the Front
"The current situation in the war is characterized by intense fighting, with neither side gaining a decisive advantage — despite the fact that Russia currently has more military resources and personnel, the Ukrainian army possesses sufficient military power to prevent a strategic-level breakthrough. Although since the beginning of 2025, Russian troops have maintained the initiative along the entire front line, the capture of Ukrainian territory is proceeding slowly: over the course of a year, control over Ukrainian territory has increased by approximately 0.4–0.7%.
Relatively small territorial gains are costly for Russia. The number of severely wounded and fallen soldiers in the war each month (over 25,000) is close to the number of mobilized soldiers each month (30,000–35,000). The need to replace fallen and wounded soldiers limits Russia's ability to prepare for a larger-scale offensive," the CPB report states.
Particular attention in the report is given to Russia's actions towards Western countries: "In 2025, Russia continued to deploy a wide range of influence measures against Western countries to weaken Western unity in support of Ukraine and potentially achieve a cessation of support, while continuing preparations for a potential confrontation with NATO. Russia also continued to direct not only sabotage and informational activities against Western countries but also cyberattacks."
Will Moscow "Sue" Latvia in the UN?
The CPB also draws attention to attempts to "pressure" and compromise Western countries in the legal arena: "In 2025, Russia increasingly intensified legal military actions against the West, paying special attention to the Baltic states. Over the past year and a half, the Russian Foreign Ministry has periodically announced its intention to sue the Baltic states (including Latvia) as well as several other countries in the International Court of Justice. In May 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Russia was preparing lawsuits against the mentioned countries. It is highly likely that the preparation process is in its final phase, and Russia will file against Latvia in the specified court during 2026.
The basis of Russia's accusations lies in familiar theses about violations of the rights of the Russian-speaking population. Latvia is accused of violations of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD). Russia justifies the accusation with the long-standing discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers, the status of non-citizens, the elimination of the cultural and historical identity of Russians, education in the Russian language, etc.
By filing in the International Court of Justice, Russia aims to achieve several goals — to discredit Latvia on an international level and to ensure that Latvia faces international pressure for an extended period to change its policy actions regarding Russia and the Russian-speaking population.
It is possible that the accusation will be used to create justification in the information space for intensifying aggressive actions against the Baltic states. It is highly likely that Russia will also utilize the positions of various pro-Russian activists and individuals who have relocated to Russia in its accusations."
"First, Take Three Deep Breaths"
In its report, the CPB tries to instill in the residents of Latvia the principles of vigilance, caution, and attentiveness — from the series "the enemy never sleeps."
"... Now more than ever, it is important for us to demonstrate a unified attitude and support for the democratic values on which the independent Latvian state and its security are built. In the flow of information and opinions, I urge you to always remember that we are under the pressure of informational influence. Much of the work our adversaries want to accomplish is to be done by the residents of Latvia, who may not even realize it. This influence is invisible but powerful, polarizing society and weakening the security of the state. I urge you not to succumb to quick emotions and not to fall for the bait thrown out.
First, take three deep breaths and only then share some seemingly scandalous information or draw conclusions about it, so as not to give Latvia's opponents reason to rejoice at the success of influence operations aimed at undermining the security and independence of Latvia," stated CPB director E. Zvidris in his address to the residents of Latvia.
The Chinese Factor
Alongside Russia, the CPB has been pointing out for several years the increasing interest of China in influencing the politics of Western countries:
"China is openly and covertly expanding its political influence in Western countries and international institutions, using various types of investments to create economic influence (including dependence) abroad, as well as employing 'soft power' actions to shape a positive image of China in Western society.
One of China's tools aimed at strengthening both internal and external positions is the strategy of civil-military interaction proposed by the Communist Party of China.
