The boomerang flies through the Saeima: the 'green farmers' take revenge on their partners for the 'defeat in Istanbul' 0 5

When one is more than 99

Let us remind you that just on Thursday, during the vote in the Saeima for the resignation of Minister of Communications Atis Švinklis ('Progressives'), this opposition demarche was supported by two deputies from the Union of Greens and Farmers (CPR) Uldis Augulis and Jānis Vucāns. The minister retained his position with a 'margin' of just two votes, and that was only because several opposition deputies were absent that day.

Angered at his partners, the leader of the 'Progressives' faction Andris Šuvajevs stated that if the opposition suddenly raises the issue of the resignation of Minister of Agriculture Armands Krauze, he (Šuvajevs) cannot guarantee that all deputies of his faction will vote against the resignation.

But the nuance is that the opposition does not plan to demand Krauze's resignation, whom the 'progressives' accuse of illegally supporting private woodworking companies at the state's expense. Why would the opposition want to 'sink' the 'green farmers' if they still hope to form a new government with them in this Saeima – just without the 'progressives'!

Ultimatum from partners

In any case, an emergency meeting of the board of the Union of Greens and Farmers was urgently convened on Friday, where a sort of ultimatum was presented to the Prime Minister – either funds will be found in the 2026 budget to ensure passenger transport in the provinces, or... this government will come to an end.

The 'green farmers' indicated where to find the money for passenger transport subsidies – to reconsider the already adopted government decision to allocate 8 million euros for the redesign of the Rail Baltica project. This proposal from the 'green farmers' is yet another slap in the face to Minister Švinklis, who insisted on these 8 million for Rail Baltica.

Moreover, the 'green farmers' are calling in their parliamentary faction the Minister of Finance Arvils Ašeradens ('New Unity') tomorrow to discuss all the amendments submitted by the deputies of the CPR to the budget package. This means that the discussion on the budget is starting anew.

Meanwhile, the 'green farmers' accused the 'progressives' of torpedoing the government. The 'progressives' did not remain in debt and stated that, on the contrary, it is the 'green farmers' who are doing everything to destroy this government, and the scandal regarding passenger transport was initiated by the 'green farmers' to distract attention from the scandal in the Ministry of Agriculture regarding financial support for the woodworking business.

What happens next? Most likely, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance will have to meet this demand from the 'green farmers' and find money for passenger transport – for example, by reducing reserve funds, that is, funds for unforeseen expenses.

Revenge for the convention

It is possible that in the end, the 2026 budget will be adopted, after which there is a very high probability that the Silin government will collapse. In fact, 'New Unity' and the 'Progressives' have planted a bomb under their own government by literally twisting the 'green farmers' arms on the Istanbul Convention issue.

As a result, the 'green farmers' surrendered their position – and this is already the second time in this Saeima, clearly disappointing (to put it mildly!) their voters. The 'Unity' and 'progressives' then simply triumphed – saying, look how we defended the convention and showed its opponents their place!

But, as they say, nothing goes without a trace, and the victory of the supporters of the convention in the Saeima may turn out to be Pyrrhic – the 'humiliated and insulted' politicians of the Union of Greens and Farmers (CPR) now want satisfaction through the budget, and the boomerang is already flying towards their government partners. This is also an asymmetric response from the 'green farmers' to Švinklis' refusal to write off the debts of the Ventspils port.

Do you believe me?

If after all that has happened this government does not collapse, it will truly be a Christmas miracle. The question also remains as to who will crack first in this war of nerves... According to rumors, Evika Silina is already struggling to contain her emotions. It cannot be ruled out that after the budget is adopted, she herself will raise the question of confidence in the Saeima, and thus – in the entire government.

It is hard not to agree with those political scientists who point out the Prime Minister's lack of leadership – she always looks at the situation in her government as if from the outside. When public scandals arise – for example, around the same state support for woodworkers – Silina mumbles something vague about how, back in late 2023, at the moment of decision-making, it did not seem to her that this was being done in the interests of individual private companies. Agree, it sounds very 'convincing'.

Let us remind you that recently President Edgars Rinkēvičs, commenting on the situation in the coalition, reasonably noted that if the partners are no longer able to interact, then there is no point in artificially keeping this government for 10 months (until the elections). After all, the residents expect effective work from the government, not squabbles and behind-the-scenes games.

Four options for a new coalition

If the Silina government collapses, there will be no power vacuum – in this Saeima, at least four options for a new ruling coalition can be created:

1. a coalition that existed under Kariņš: 'New Unity', National Alliance, and the United List;

2. a different combination – 'New Unity', 'Progressives', National Alliance, and United;

3. the same option as the previous one, but instead of the 'progressives' – CPR;

4. and the last option – CPR, United List, National Alliance, and Latvia First.

The 'green farmers' understand perfectly well that the 2026 budget will bring no joy to their voters. And in general, the prolonged stay of the 'green farmers' in the shadow of the other two power partners may end tragically for the CPR. The ratings already clearly show that the CPR has begun a rapid decline – so they might not even make it to the next Saeima...