"Why did you vote for the ratification of the Istanbul Convention two years ago, and now you are against it? What has changed?!" - ask the "green farmers" from the tribune of the Saeima, politicians from "New Unity" and the "Progressives," who do not support Latvia's withdrawal from this convention.
In fact, it is all a theater, a theater for young viewers, as the "unifiers" and "progressives" know the answer to this question very well. It is not the convention or the situation regarding its application that has changed; it is the POLITICAL CIRCUMSTANCES that have changed!
Events of the Past
In November 2023, when the ratification process of the convention was taking place, the Silin government was only 2 months old, and the ratification was part of the so-called "gentleman's set" - it was precisely for the promise to support the Istanbul Convention and the legal formalization of partnership relations (read - a kind of legalization of same-sex unions) that the "green farmers" were brought into the government. Along with, of course, the vote for the election of Rinkevich as head of state. This was a typical political deal.
Yes, the leaders (and not only) of the Union of Greens and Farmers felt "awkward" voting for the ratification of this convention, as during the 2022 election campaign they had sworn not to do so. However, the desire to be in power "overcame" the awkwardness. Moreover, there were three years until the parliamentary elections, and the "green farmers" hoped that either the voters would forget about this kind of betrayal, or... later, closer to the elections, something could be figured out - for example, denouncing the convention, that is, withdrawing from it. However, part of the "green farmers" still did not want to vote for this ticking time bomb. Therefore, the leaders of the Union of Greens and Farmers on one side, and their partners in the new government on the other, devised two cunning moves.
First, to attach a certain declaration to the convention stating that the principles enshrined in the Constitution are above the provisions of this convention. And the second move - they decided to conduct the ratification urgently, right within one sitting of the Saeima, and allocated... 15 minutes for the submission of proposals to the corresponding bill! It is clear that in 15 minutes it is simply impossible to come up with, print, and distribute amendments on the official deputy form! Here one can agree with the chairwoman of the Saeima Foreign Affairs Committee, Inara Murniece, that this was a parody of legislative activity.
Operation Rescue
One way or another, the ratification took place. It is difficult to say whether all voters of the "green farmers" really remembered this "deception," but now there is less than a year until the elections, and the rating of the Union of Greens and Farmers is, to put it mildly, unimpressive - only fifth place. That is, among all three ruling parties, the Union of Greens and Farmers has the lowest popularity. In the elections to the Riga City Council, the party did not overcome the five percent barrier, losing mayoral positions and in a number of key municipalities for the "green farmers." The elections to the European Parliament also ended in failure for the Union of Greens and Farmers.
It is clear that something needs to be done! It is also clear that as the hour "X" - the elections to the Saeima - approaches, the nervousness within the Union of Greens and Farmers is growing. First of all, what to present to the voters? Where are the good news?
Secondly, being in the same government during the election campaign with ideological opponents - the "progressives" - is already fraught with losing mandates in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Conservative rural voters will find it difficult to "sell" cooperation with participants of pride events.
Thirdly, deputies from the Union of Greens and Farmers understand that it is time to think about... personal well-being or rather - personal political survival! After all, in such a scenario, and considering the very tough competition on the center-right flank (the votes of these same voters are claimed by the United List, the National Alliance, and surely activists of the new movement "Without Parties," who will run for elections from some existing party), not all current deputies from the Union of Greens and Farmers will be elected to the next parliament!
Fear and the Convention
The situation created, namely the fear of the "green farmers," was skillfully exploited by the right opposition, initiating a bill to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention. What were the "green farmers" to do? If they did not support the bill, they would give the opposition a reason to remind voters of the "betrayal" of the "green farmers" in November 2023. This could ultimately ruin the Union of Greens and Farmers. Therefore, they easily swallowed this "bait." However, perhaps this is not bait at all, but a gift - after all, this demarche regarding the Istanbul Convention became a wonderful tool for the collapse of this government! And if the Silin government ultimately collapses, the Union of Greens and Farmers will have a great chance, after a seven-year hiatus, to lead the government again! The right opposition has hinted to the "green farmers" in no uncertain terms - if, thanks to you, the ideologically alien Silin government comes to an end, then you will have the right of first refusal!
In principle, the scandal surrounding the Istanbul Convention gave "five minutes of fame" to all parliamentary parties and all deputies of the Saeima, many of whom have sat in parliament for these three years, excuse me, like mice, and voters have already forgotten about their existence! This primarily applies to the deputies of the largest faction in the Saeima - "New Unity." During the lengthy debates on the convention, representatives of "New Unity" who had appeared in the tribune only two or three times in three years - and that only to present a particular bill on behalf of the committee - came to the Saeima tribune with prepared speeches.
Eager to Become a Deputy Again
Each of the 25 deputies of "New Unity" is well aware that repeating this record (in the 2022 elections, the party received as many as 26 seats - later one deputy was expelled from the faction) is practically impossible. It would be good if this party ends up with half of its current number of mandates after the elections. And for these 13 mandates, along with the 25 deputies, the prime minister, and ministers from "New Unity," as well as perhaps former Saeima deputies and one or two deputies from the Riga City Council will fight... Therefore, the epic with the convention has, to some extent, benefited them - it has given them an opportunity to remind people of their existence.
But the "progressives" are even more pleased with everything happening: they have shown their voters (the main, by the way, "consumers" of the convention) that they are ready to defend their position and can mobilize the masses (this includes large-scale protests at the Saeima and the collection of tens of thousands of signatures on the portal manabalss.lv in defense of the convention). Yes, in the event of the collapse of the Silin government, they will most likely find themselves in opposition, but they can "endure" for just 9 months to ultimately gain more mandates in the elections than they currently have. A similar tactic in the Riga City Council allowed the "progressives" to regain the mayor's post after the elections.
There is no doubt that the deputies of the United List, the National Alliance, and of course the party "Latvia First" will also extract their political dividends from this story with the convention.
In general, if the Istanbul Convention did not exist, it would be worth inventing it!
