Latvia's Demographic Pit: There is Only One Solution and Many Will Dislike It 0 6

According to Zane Varpin, the current state of demographics in Latvia is neither a surprise nor a secret. The country is already in what is called a demographic pit, and there are two key explanations for this, writes Otkrito.lv.

The first factor is the extremely low birth rate in the 1990s. Immediately after the restoration of Latvia's independence, the number of births sharply declined, and since then, as the demographer notes, the birth rate has not been able to fully recover. This means that today, fewer generations are entering the active age, which automatically reduces both the labor market potential and the number of future parents.

The second serious blow to demographics is the massive waves of emigration. Over the past decades, hundreds of thousands of people, mostly of working age, have left Latvia. As a result, the country's population is shrinking at an accelerated pace, and the structure of society is becoming increasingly unbalanced.

Particular concern is raised by the decrease in the number of people of working age and children. According to Varpin's estimates, "if there are currently 1.2 million people of working age in Latvia, then in 15 years, there will be 20 percent fewer." This poses a direct threat to the economy, the social security system, and the state's pension model.

At the same time, the possibilities for influencing demographic processes, according to the expert, are quite limited. Financial benefits and family support are important, but they are not a decisive factor in the decision to have children. The demographer emphasizes that low birth rates are a common trend across the entire western part of the world. "The birth rate in the western world is very low, and the population of the European Union is growing only due to immigration from other countries," she notes. Without an influx of people from other countries, the EU population would also be declining. These processes are global in nature, and local measures—such as housing programs or additional benefits—can only partially mitigate the consequences.