Energy is cheaper in summer, but what awaits us in autumn - expert 0

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Energy is cheaper in summer, but what awaits us in autumn - expert

The conflict in the Middle East currently does not affect energy prices in Latvia; however, it is still premature to draw conclusions about what the situation will be in autumn when the next heating season begins and natural gas will also be needed for electricity production, said Kristaps Muzikants, head of "Ignitis Latvija," in an interview with LETA.

He noted that in spring and summer, electricity in the Baltic region is mainly produced from renewable energy sources — solar, wind, and hydro resources, so current global events do not affect electricity prices.

"If we look a little further — to autumn and winter, when renewable resources will decrease and natural gas will be needed for electricity production, then, of course, this could affect the situation. At some point, gas prices surged sharply, then fell again depending on various news and statements from world leaders. But, in my opinion, it is premature to make far-reaching conclusions about whether the price will be very high or very low," said Muzikants.

He explained that traders who purchase natural gas and inject it into the Inčukalns underground gas storage for the next heating season have different timelines for concluding contracts and fixing prices for gas batches, so it is currently difficult to assess what the average price might be. Additionally, the injection of gas into the Inčukalns underground gas storage has just begun, and the conflict in the Middle East may develop in various scenarios in the coming months, which will also affect prices.

"We don’t even know what will happen in June yet. Therefore, in my opinion, it is still too early to judge how this will affect the next winter and gas prices," noted Muzikants, adding that the uncertainty is currently quite high and creates a favorable ground for speculation.

He acknowledged that from an energy perspective, the Baltic region is somewhat fortunate that the crisis in the Middle East began just as the heating season ended and electricity production was able to fully transition to renewable energy sources, as many solar energy projects have been implemented in the Baltics in previous years.

"With a smile, one might say that this is exactly the moment when we see that renewable energy sources are not so frightening after all. In fact, it is a good time to understand how important energy independence and the ability to be independent in energy resource matters are today. The more we depend on various fossil resources, oil, and natural gas, the more vulnerable we are overall. Therefore, the current situation shows that electrification and the implementation of renewable energy sources are not such a daunting 'hump' as people in society sometimes imagine. In fact, it is even desirable and necessary for us to be less dependent on market fluctuations and events happening far from our region in the future," emphasized Muzikants.

The turnover of "Ignitis Latvija" in 2024 amounted to 93.548 million euros, and the company's profit was 746,000 euros. The financial results of the company for 2025 have not yet been published. "Ignitis Latvija" was registered in 2013. The sole owner of the company is the Lithuanian "Ignitis."

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