Sanction violators will continue to develop new schemes for circumventing sanction restrictions, making them increasingly complex and harder to detect, predicts the State Security Service (SGB) in its 2025 activity report.
In 2025, significant risks continued to arise from both cross-border business transactions of local entrepreneurs and operations of foreign companies with goods subject to EU import or export restrictions in eastern deliveries. According to the SGB, heightened risks of sanction violations also persist in trade of sanctioned goods with countries in Asia and the Middle East that have not imposed trade restrictions against Russia.
The analysis conducted by the SGB shows that last year unscrupulous entrepreneurs continued attempts to conceal the true nature of their business transactions and their connection to Russia for profit.
Over the past year, the SGB initiated 22 criminal proceedings on suspicion of violating EU sanctions imposed against Russia or Belarus. As in 2024, the majority — ten cases — were initiated based on facts of illegal provision of services to companies registered in Russia, with individuals providing services either on the territory of Russia or remotely from Latvia.
The SGB predicts that challenges related to the risks of sanction evasion in commodity flows to the east will continue to pose threats to Latvia's economic security. Violators will continue to develop new schemes for circumventing sanctions, making them increasingly sophisticated and harder to detect. Responsible Latvian authorities will need to continue investing significant resources in identifying, investigating, and preventing such cases.
Given the ongoing involvement of certain Latvian companies in economic cooperation with Russia and Belarus, some enterprises in Latvia's transport sector may gradually lose interest in adhering to the previously maintained principled policy of refusing business transactions with these states. According to the SGB, Latvia must continue to maintain a tough stance aimed at further reducing the economic presence of Russia and Belarus.
The SGB does not foresee a significant influx of investments from countries unfriendly to Latvia. At the same time, risks will continue to arise from capital flows associated with these countries, especially in business transactions with third countries involving goods and services subject to sanctions.
