"Russian assets are currently extremely cheap both in international comparisons and in historical context."
In 2026, the usual financial logic will fail. A strong ruble, expensive loans, and new rules in banks and insurance will affect not only investors but also ordinary families.
A Strong Ruble and Difficult Conditions for Business
A fundamental factor influencing what is happening in the Russian economy this past year has been the significant strengthening of the ruble, says Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the P.A. Stolypin Institute for Economic Growth.
"The ruble has outpaced the vast majority of world currencies in terms of growth against the US dollar since the beginning of the year," he notes. This makes imports cheaper but complicates life for Russian producers.
At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble is largely a result of policy.
"The extremely high key interest rate, restrictions on imports, and currency sales as part of the operations of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are influencing this," the expert adds.
The choice of these measures, according to Boris Kopeikin, is "extremely non-obvious" against the backdrop of an economic slowdown, as typically, to enhance the competitiveness of producers, the national currency is weakened instead.
An additional blow to business has been the decision to raise VAT starting in 2026 and the phased reduction of thresholds for small businesses. The consequences of these decisions are already being felt.
"The ongoing decline in investments is a reaction to worsening conditions," the economist believes. The official forecast for 2026 is a decrease in capital investments, which means the period will be challenging. But here lies a paradoxical opportunity:
"Russian assets are currently extremely cheap both in international comparisons and in historical context." A decrease in investments today may mean less competition tomorrow — and high returns for those willing to enter the market during a downturn.
What Awaits the Economy and People in 2026: Forecasts from Investors, Analysts, and Insurers
Oksana Samoylenko
MONEY In 2026, the usual financial logic will fail. A strong ruble, expensive loans, and new rules in banks and insurance will affect not only investors but also ordinary families. We explain what to prepare for and what decisions will help avoid losing money and confidence in the future.
Oksana Samoylenko
A Strong Ruble and Difficult Conditions for Business
A fundamental factor influencing what is happening in the Russian economy this past year has been the significant strengthening of the ruble, says Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the P.A. Stolypin Institute for Economic Growth.
"The ruble has outpaced the vast majority of world currencies in terms of growth against the US dollar since the beginning of the year," he notes. This makes imports cheaper but complicates life for Russian producers.
At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble is largely a result of policy.
"The extremely high key interest rate, restrictions on imports, and currency sales as part of the operations of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are influencing this," the expert adds. The choice of these measures, according to Boris Kopeikin, is "extremely non-obvious" against the backdrop of an economic slowdown, as typically, to enhance the competitiveness of producers, the national currency is weakened instead.
The strengthening of the ruble is an extremely non-obvious decision against the backdrop of the country's economic slowdown.
An additional blow to business has been the decision to raise VAT starting in 2026 and the phased reduction of thresholds for small businesses. The consequences of these decisions are already being felt.
"The ongoing decline in investments is a reaction to worsening conditions," the economist believes.
The official forecast for 2026 is a decrease in capital investments, which means the period will be challenging. But here lies a paradoxical opportunity:
"Russian assets are currently extremely cheap both in international comparisons and in historical context."
A decrease in investments today may mean less competition tomorrow — and high returns for those willing to enter the market during a downturn.
Money and Investments: AI, Crypto, and the 'Year of Stocks'
The investment market is approaching 2026 in a state that seemed impossible just a few years ago. As noted by Dmitry Tselishev, managing director of the investment company Rikom-Trast, three key structural trends have formed in the industry today:
- the launch of trading in a 7-day-a-week format;
- a change in rhetoric regarding the legalization of crypto assets as a full-fledged investment object;
- the mass implementation of artificial intelligence technologies.
The most unexpected of these has been cryptocurrency. According to Tselishev, its legalization is a forced step.
"Even according to official statistics, over 4 trillion rubles are accumulated in the crypto wallets of Russians abroad," the expert notes.
AI is changing the traditional workings of the market: it creates trading strategies and models on its own, while routine tasks for humans are almost entirely automated. Tselishev emphasizes:
"The world and the financial market have divided into before and after, and in 2026 this gap will become even more noticeable."
Digital debt assets stand out separately — essentially new bonds with unusual collateral, such as collectible wine. The main idea is to provide investors with more options and make the market more flexible.
At the same time, service and convenience for clients are becoming more important than profitability. Profitability takes a back seat, while convenience, transparency, and comfort of interaction come to the forefront.
And the most serious risk of 2026 will be cybersecurity. Protecting customer data, the resilience of IT infrastructure, and combating fraud will become critically important for financial companies.
The expert believes that the next year could go down in history as the "year of stocks." They are increasingly being viewed as a savings tool — with dividends and potential higher than deposits.
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