Analysts at Goldman Sachs have revised their forecast for the price of Brent crude in the fourth quarter to $71 per barrel from the previously expected $66 per barrel, and WTI to $67 per barrel from $62 per barrel. This was reported by Reuters.
This is due to expectations of longer disruptions in fuel supplies through the Strait of Hormuz because of the war with Iran.
Previously, experts anticipated a 10-day interruption, but now they forecast virtually no supplies through the strait for 21 days, followed by a gradual restoration of vessel traffic over the course of a month.
Brent has risen more than 36% since the beginning of this conflict, while WTI has increased by approximately 39%.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $98 per barrel in March and April, before dropping to $71 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
In a higher-risk scenario, where supplies through the strait are disrupted for a month, a price spike to $110 per barrel is anticipated in March and April, followed by a gradual decrease to $76 per barrel by the end of the year.
Analysts believe that spot prices are likely to exceed their peak of $147 per barrel from 2008 if supplies through the strait remain constrained throughout March.
Citi experts have raised their forecast for the average price of Brent in the first quarter to $75 per barrel from $73, in the second quarter to $78 per barrel from $70, and in the third quarter to $68 per barrel from $62.
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