Finnish portal Yle: the crisis of the Russian economy is exaggerated, military defeat is not guaranteed 0 18

The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse, its military power is weakening, and President Putin is facing a coup. Such statements frequently appear in Western media and in the speeches of politicians.

But this is not happening. The West is too eager to believe forecasts of Russia's imminent collapse and the downfall of the Putin regime.

This conclusion was reached by two independent experts on Russia in a conversation with the Finnish portal Yle. Neither of them is a supporter of the Putin regime.

Arkadiy Moshes heads the "Russia, Eastern Europe and Eurasia" program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). According to him, the Russian authorities are evolving towards totalitarianism.

American-Russian journalist Dan Storev has worked for years at OVD-Info – a Russian human rights organization that supports political prisoners, tracks the detention of protesters, and monitors human rights compliance in Russia.

In early June, the Russian authorities recognized OVD-Info as an extremist organization. Storev is now engaged in journalism. His book on authoritarian Russian society, How to Survive Authoritarianism, will be published in the fall.

Both Storev and Moshes agree: yes, the Russian economy is facing difficulties, domestic politics is turbulent, and military actions are not going as smoothly as the Kremlin would like. But the collapse is still a long way off.

"Remember how the Soviet Union collapsed. The economic system collapsed, the political one changed. Civil war broke out in some regions. Nothing like this is happening in modern Russia," says Storev.

Both experts are convinced: the West, and especially Finland, needs to deepen its understanding of Russian realities, and this is not about approving its policies, but about having a deep knowledge of Russian society.

The Russian economy is not on the brink of collapse

One of the popular views lately, which has gained wide circulation even in Finland, is that the Russian economy is heading towards a crisis.

Arkadiy Moshes from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs disagrees. Yes, the state budget deficit in Russia is growing, but the government can still take internal loans.

Moshes reminds us: Putin can always turn to the oligarchs.

"The largest Russian companies have been asked to contribute more to military actions than before. Essentially, this is assistance and donations from the elite to the state," explains Moshes.

Moreover, Russia is confiscating the property of the super-rich and reselling it.

Journalist Storev adds: the flip side is that the Kremlin has linked the enrichment of the elite with the war.

"The Russian economy is currently structured in such a way that the easiest way to make money is to participate in military actions in one way or another," he says.

Right now, Ukraine is winning – both on the internal front and through drone strikes deeper into Russian territory. If this dynamic continues, the situation could ultimately change in favor of Ukraine, believes Moshes. But this is not guaranteed.

"Every time Ukraine received new Western weapons, its troops advanced. But after a few months, the Russians found a way to counteract."

Moshes considers it quite likely that in six months Russia will learn to defend more effectively against Ukrainian drones, for example, oil refineries that have become targets of recent attacks.

In his opinion, Russia could be put in a difficult position if Ukraine blocked Crimea. But he does not believe that the West would approve of this.

"It would be like the blockade of Leningrad during World War II: two million people would be on the brink of starvation," explains Moshes.

Closing the eastern border is not necessary for Finland – information about Russia is important

The experts also touch upon Finland's special measure regarding Russians – the closure of the eastern border.

The Finnish authorities closed the eastern border in December 2023, when signs emerged of Russia using instrumentalized migration as a means of pressure on Finland.

Moshes believes that the closure was justified at that time. But now there is no longer a need for it.

"The Russian-Norwegian border is open, the Estonian border is partially open. There is no refugee situation arising there," compares Moshes.

In his opinion, keeping the eastern border closed deprives Finland of the opportunity to obtain important information about the state of Russian society. This opportunity was provided by both tourism and academic cooperation.

"There are still colleagues in Moscow who publish articles on why this war is wrong and what needs to change. But we cannot invite them to Finland."

And what about security? For example, former military personnel from Russia could come to Finland with various intentions. Moshes acknowledges the complexity of the issue. But risks can be minimized by making the visa application process lengthy and carefully monitored.