Russia has warned Armenia of a possible cessation of gas, petroleum products, and other strategically important goods if Yerevan continues its course towards rapprochement with the European Union. The warning came amid growing cooling of relations between the two countries.
Russia has warned Armenia that it may unilaterally suspend or completely denounce the agreement on the supply of natural gas, petroleum products, and uncut diamonds. According to Meduza, citing the newspaper Kommersant, this was communicated to Yerevan in an official letter by Russia's Minister of Energy Sergey Tsivilev.
The agreement in question was signed between Russia and Armenia in 2013. At that time, Moscow effectively provided Yerevan with preferential supply conditions — without export duties on gas, petroleum products, and diamonds. Now, Russia is indicating that these conditions may be reconsidered in light of Armenia's political shift towards the European Union.
The situation is particularly sensitive for Yerevan, as the country remains highly dependent on Russian supplies. According to analysts, Armenia receives about 85% of its consumed gas from Russia, over 60% of its imported petroleum products, and half of all uncut diamond supplies.
If the agreement is terminated, the consequences could be not only energy-related but also financial. Under the terms of the contract, Armenia would either have to compensate Russia or the unpaid amounts could be recognized as state debt.
In fact, Moscow is using one of the most painful leverage points for Armenia — energy and dependence on the Russian market.
In recent years, relations between the countries have noticeably deteriorated.
After the conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenian authorities increasingly accused Russia of not providing the expected support to Yerevan as an ally. Against this backdrop, Armenia has begun to actively develop relations with the EU and the USA.
In 2025, the country's parliament even passed a law on the course towards EU membership. Yerevan is also hoping to achieve a visa-free regime with the EU in the coming years.
Currently, pressure from Moscow is intensifying also because parliamentary elections in Armenia are approaching, scheduled for June 7. According to media and analysts, the Kremlin is conducting a campaign against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as well as gradually imposing economic restrictions on Armenia.
For the South Caucasus region, what is happening could become one of the most serious geopolitical shifts in recent years — Armenia is effectively trying to break away from the traditional Russian sphere of influence while remaining economically and energetically closely tied to Moscow.
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