Expert Names Three Reasons Why Russia Would Not Attack the Baltic States 0 24

An attack on the Baltic states is quite likely — and here’s why. There are at least three reasons.

First and foremost: Russia risks nothing

Regardless of how events unfold in the case of an occupation of the Baltic states, Russia will not be worse off. Sanctions are already in place. Europe no longer buys its oil and gas. Weapons are being supplied to Ukraine.

From a purely military standpoint, Russia also risks nothing. It has nuclear weapons, so if it wins and occupies the Baltic states or even part of them, no one will be able to drive it out.

But if it loses, it will not lose its territory. It will simply retreat to its borders, and NATO will not invade Russian territory precisely because of the presence of nuclear weapons.

So why not give it a try?

The second reason: the goals of the war

Russia's goals go far beyond the occupation of the Baltic states. First and foremost, Russia is interested in weakening or destroying NATO and the EU. From this perspective, any territorial success in the Baltic states will be considered a victory.

Even if Russia does not capture Vilnius or Tallinn, but only a few border settlements, it will still be a victory, as it will demonstrate NATO's inability to defend its members.

And again — why not give it a try?

The third reason: the availability of resources

Russia has enough forces and resources in the potential conflict zone to carry out military tasks and achieve an acceptable outcome. There are about 70,000 combat-ready servicemen in the Leningrad Military District, which can easily be reinforced with reserves from the Ukrainian front. This army is mechanized, has about 700 tanks, and a large amount of armored vehicles.

The drone component should be noted separately, as NATO has virtually no full analogue, and it can significantly change the balance of power in the event of an invasion.

If there are enough forces — why not give it a try?

Thus, the current situation is as follows: Russia has enough resources to achieve its goals in the Baltic states, and in any scenario, there is no clearly negative outcome for it.

The situation is very reminiscent of what it was before the invasion of Ukraine, especially considering the law that allows Putin to "protect Russians abroad," which the State Duma quickly adopted.

The Baltic states have helped us more than anyone else, so I sincerely hope that our friends do not face war. But to maintain peace, one must prepare for a great war. It is very good that our Baltic friends have learned lessons from Ukraine's mistakes and built defensive lines and fortifications to repel a possible invasion. I very much hope that Russia will "break its teeth" on the Baltic states just as it did in Ukraine.